The Grogan Verdict: Week 3 by Dan Grogan (9/19/12)

The purpose of this report is to shed additional light and clarification on players who fall into the "gray area" of fantasy line-up decision making. Not all players make it into the report each week.


I know we're only two games in, but my take on Seattle's passing attack is that coach Pete Carroll would prefer it if he didn't have to throw it much and count on the defense to keep the opposition down and on Marshawn Lynch's running to take the air out of the ball...Is Tom Brady a fantasy decision this week? It took a late 4th quarter rally for him to get meaningful fantasy stats last game; He'll be without TE Aaron Hernandez (ankle) and the Ravens are on tap...I don't see Sam Bradford repeating his 3 TD passes of Week 2 against the Bears who have limited Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers to one TD apiece...


Got Adrian Peterson? You've got a decision. AP faces the 49ers this week and their run defense hasn't been kind. After limiting Cedric Benson to 18 yards in Week 1, San Fran held Kevin Smith to 53 last Sunday. In two games, the Niners have allowed just 127 yards on the ground (3.2 ypr) and no rushing TDs...If Kansas City has any hopes of winning this week against New Orleans they have to get Jamal Charles, who had just 6 carries last Sunday (a sore knee didn't help), more engaged. While the Saints' run D has been terrible (allowed 5 TDs and 372 yards), both of their first two opponents have been able to jump to quick leads and then stay on the ground. I'm not convinced Matt Cassel and company can do that...That ankle sprain suffered by Matt Forte last week, gives Michael Bush a real shot at decent fantasy numbers...Man, is Chris Johnson looking like the CJ of last year? Not so sure I'd be starting him this week against the Lions...Two RBs in an RBBC is bad enough, but Carolina has taken it to new heights. All three backs - DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert scored TDs last week AND QB Cam Newton ran one in himself. It's a guessing game if you have any of these backs ...Steven Jackson's fantasy value might be at some risk. He left last week's game in the second quarter with either a groin injury or because coach Jeff Fisher benched him for incurring an unsportsmanlike penalty. If that wasn't bad enough, backup Daryl Richardson had a nice game - 83 yards on 15 carries - except for coughing the ball up when the Rams were icing the game....


Seems that Seattle didn't overlook Dallas' Week 1 standout Kevin Ogletree on Sunday. After an 8-catch, 11-4-yard, 2-TD showing on opening day, Ogletree caught one pass for 26 yards in Week 2...With TE Aaron Hernandez (high ankle sprain) gone for a while, I have to think his absence will help the wide receivers...Although Carolina has held Vincent Jackson to 47 yards and Marques Colston to 49, there's no way you sit Victor Cruz this week. With Hakeem Nicks OUT this week, Cruz could be a target monster... Saw this interesting analysis of the Sam Bradford to Danny Amendola connection in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch: In his career Bradford has completed 110 of 154 passes (71.4 percent) for 964 yards, 4 TDs and 49 first downs when targeting Amendola. And when Bradford has targeted any other receiver in his NFL career, he's completed 478 of 853 passes (56 percent.)


Not like last year. Through two games, Washington's Fred Davis has just 4 receptions and 52 yards. Of RGIII's 55 passes so far, just 13 have been targeted for tight ends...


As we know, there's no such thing as a "lock" in the NFL, but I like what I see in the Kansas City - New Orleans matchup this week. The Chiefs have given up a DT/ST score in each of the first two games and the Saints DT/ST has scored a TD in both of their two contests...

Possible Free Agents I'm Eyeing

Shaun Draughn/RB/KC - With 85 yards on 11 carries, Draughn has been the Chiefs most effective back in the early going.

Andre Brown/RB/NYG - With Ahmad Bradshaw (neck) in question, Brown and not David Wilson is the likely replacement.

Brian Hartline/WR/MIA - The Dolphins don't have much in their passing game, but Hartline is the star of it.

Daryl Richardson/RB/STL - Whether Steven Jackson was pulled last Sunday for a groin injury or was benched for a bone-head move, Richardson may have earned more playing time with his 83-yard performance.

Donnie Avery/WR/IND - 9 catches for 111 yards will get your attention.

Brandon Gibson/WR/STL - Understandably, after Danny Amendola's 15-catch day on Sunday all the fantasy attention in St. Louis is him, but Gibson has now scored in each of the first two games.

Keep in mind, Detroit RB Mikel Leshoure is eligible to return from his two-game suspension this week and Minnesota WR Jerome Simpson's 3-game suspension ends after this Sunday....

Week 2 Whiffs

Cecil Shorts/WR/JAX - After an impressive 4-catch, 64-yard, 1-TD debut, Shorts was targeted just twice in Week 2 and failed to make a catch.

Steve Breaston/WR/KC - Just one target on Sunday and didn't catch it.

Braylon Edwards/WR/SEA - no targets; no catches

Go Figure

Through two games, Darren Sproles has not had a single rush. Fortunately, for fantasy GMs that have him, Sproles has caught 18 passes for 163 yards and a score...What do Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassel and Sam Bradford have in common? They all out-pointed Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady this past week...

Looking Ahead

The byes start in Week 4 with Indianapolis and Pittsburgh off. Now might be a good time to start looking for replacements especially if your kicker or defense is off.

Good luck this week everyone!