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Grogan Verdict: Week 4, Kelly's Judgement
 
The Grogan Verdict by Kelly Grogan (9/26/12)

Week 4

Our goal is not to address every player or decision in the fantasy world each week.  Some players are no brainers... week to week starters.  What we are trying to address are those players in the grey area and assist you in making those tough decision.  Remember, not all scoring systems are the same so take into account your specific scoring system.


QUARTERBACKS

Jake Locker/QB/TEN I think this is a very tough match-up for Locker this week.  Houston has given up 3 TD passes (2 last week to Peyton Manning), but Locker is not Manning.  Not a great match-up and I would look to a different direction for a starting fantasy QB option for week 4.

Kevin Kolb/QB/ARZ is expected to again get the starting assignment this week against the Dolphins. The Dolphins have played the pass well in their first 3 games, but will yield on yardage.  Miami is allowing an average of 315 passing yards per game this season.

Philip Rivers/QB/SD has not been consistent with only 1 multi passing TD game this season.  But, this week could be different.  I like the fact that the Chiefs have given up 8 passing TD's in 3 games and based on this, Rivers is a good fantasy option for week 4.

Andy Dalton/QB/CIN has thrown for an average of 328 yards and 3 TD passes in the last 2 games.  It's not a great match-up this week with Jacksonville, but they did give up 2 passing TD's in last week's game to Colts QB Andrew Luck.

Ryan Fitzpatrick/QB/BUF has thrown 8 TD passes the first 3 weeks of the season.  I would take my chances with him again this week facing a Patriot's defense that has allowed 5 passing TD's on the season and I expect with the Bills rushing game will be impacted by injuries which means Fitzpatrick may have to go to the air more often in this one.

Blaine Gabbert/QB/JAX is getting a little too risky to start as a fantasy option.  He did have a late 80 yard TD to WR Cecil Shorts last game but, he is not consistent enough to be a strong starting fantasy option.

Carson Palmer/QB/OAK is coming off his first multi TD passing game of the season last week against the Steelers.  I like his chances against this Denver defense that has allowed 8 passing TD's on the season.

Matt Schaub/QB/HOU had a 4 TD passing performance last week against the Broncos.  I do like his match-up this week against the Titans, who have given up 6 passing TD's in the last 2 games.

Joe Flacco/QB/BAL has thrown 6 TD's on the season... not too bad. I like the fact he has a home game this week against the Browns defense that given up 8 passing TD's in their first three games.

Brandon Weeden/QB/CLV is playing a very tough Ravens defense that has only allowed 2 passing TD's on the season.  I don't recommend Weeden this week as a fantasy option.

Tom Brady/QB/NE has 4 passing TD's on the season.  I only mention him this week because I benched him last week, in my fantasy line-up, in favor of Ben Roethlisberger based on the match-ups.  Brady is a must for any fantasy line-up this week going against the struggling Bills secondary.

Matt Cassel/QB/KC is facing a San Diego defense that gave up 3 passing TD's to Atlanta's Matt Ryan last week.  A repeat performance by this defense...don't think so.  The Chiefs offensive line is struggling this season having given up 11 sacks in three games.  If I had a better option, I would stay away from Cassel as a starting fantasy option.

Matt Schaub/QB/HOU is coming off his first multi passing TD game of the season last week in Denver.  The fact that the Titans have given up 8 passing TD's in their first 3 games, I like Schaub this week against Tennessee.

Peyton Manning/QB/DEN is normally a no brainer fantasy starter.  But, I especially like his match-up this week against the Raiders in Denver.  Oakland has given up 6 passing TD's in the first 3 games and 2 out of the first 3 games Manning has thrown for more than 1 TD in a game.


RUNNING BACKS

Chris Johnson/RB/TEN has really struggled so far this season.  If I had a better option I would look at sitting Chris Johnson against this tough Texans defense that has not allowed a rushing TD yet this season.

Reggie Bush/RB/MIA suffered a knee injury last week against the Jets.  It's not considered real serious, but the Dolphins may want to ease him back into the line-up.  He has a tough match-up this week against the Cardinals, who have not allowed a rushing TD on the season.

Darren McFadden/RB/OAK has the only rushing TD on the season for the Raiders.  McFadden is the workhorse and has additional value in PPR scoring systems.  I have no problem including him in my fantasy line-up this week against a suspect Denver defense.

Stevan Ridley/RB/NE is averaging almost 4.5 ypc this season and is worthy of a flex option this week in larger leagues.

Ryan Mathews/RB/SD played last week for the first time since his preseason shoulder injury.  He did have 10 rushing attempts for 44 yards to go along with 5 receptions for 32 yards.  I do like him this week against a Chiefs defense that is giving up 4.7 ypc on the season.

Willis McGahee/RB/DEN suffered a rib injury last week against the Texans.  His status for this game is in question.  If he is available, he is worthy of a flex option considering the Raiders are giving up over 4.0 ypc on the season.

Jamaal Charles/RB/KC is facing a Chargers defense that has allowed only 1 rushing TD on the season.  Also, they have not allowed a 100+ yard rusher yet this season, but that could change this week.  I like the workload Charles is getting and I would figure out a way to get him in my fantasy line-up this week.

Peyton Hillis/RB/KC is only averaging only 7 carries per game this season and until I see something different, I would keep him on my fantasy bench.

BenJarvis Green-Ellis/RB/CIN faces a Jacksonville that gave up 5 rushing TD's this season.  I would take my chances against a defense that is giving up 4.4 ypc this season.

CJ Spiller/RB/BUF is out this and next week with a sprained AC joint and Tashard Choice will get the start.

Trent Richardson/RB/CLV is playing a Baltimore Ravens defense that has allowed 5 rushing TD's in three games.  This will not be an easy task for Richardson this week.  But, he is averaging 3.5 ypc on the season and would consider him an RB3/flex option.

Tashard Choice/RB/BUF gets the start this week due to injuries to RB's Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller.  The Patriots have played the run pretty tough allowing only 3.3 ypc on the season.  Choice is considered a flex option, at best, this week against the Patriots.

Ray Rice/RB/BAL is facing a Cleveland Browns' defense that has yet to give up a rushing TD, but that could be because they have given up 8 passing TD's in three games.  Rice is a no brainer this week going against a defense that is giving up over 4 ypc on the season.


WIDE RECEIVERS

Torrey Smith/WR/BAL has 235 yards receiving in three games to go along with his 2 TD's.  The Browns pass defense is very suspect and I especially like Smith in most fantasy line-ups this week.

Brian Hartline/WR/MIA has been targeted by QB Ryan Tannehill 29 times in their first 3 games. He did have 111 yards receiving in week 2 against the Raiders.  But, with Arizona playing the pass very well, I would sit Hartline this week.

Wes Welker/WR/NE has been targeted 16 times in 3 games by QB Tom Brady. I like the fact he is more involved in the offense the last 2 games.  Even though he has yet to find the end zone, he has great value this week against the Bills in all PPR scoring systems.

Demaryius Thomas/WR/DEN had a rough game last week against the Houston Texans.  He only had 3 receptions for 34 yards, 3 drops, lost a fumble and couldn't get his foot down in the end zone for a potential TD reception. But, with that said, I would take my chances with him this week.  The Raiders have allowed 6 passing TD's on the season.

Eric Decker/WR/DEN is coming off his best game of the season with 8 receptions for 136 yards last week against the Texans.  He hasn't found the end zone yet, but has nice value in PPR scoring leagues.

Malcom Floyd/WR/SD has been targeted 23 times by QB Philip Rivers in the first 3 games.  He does have 13 receptions for 227 yards, but only 1 TD.  With the Chiefs having given up 8 passing TD's in 3 games, I would take my chances with Floyd this week.

Robert Meachem/WR/SD has not been consistent enough to start each week in a fantasy line-up.  With only 6 receptions on the season, I would look a different direction for a starting fantasy WR.

Kenny Britt/WR/TEN since coming off his suspension in week 1, he has been targeted 13 times in 2 games, but I don't like him against this Houston Texans defense that can cause problems for young QB's.

Nate Washington/WR/TEN has scored twice in the first 3 games and looks to be a nice option for Jake Locker.  It's not an easy game against the Texans, but if you are strapped because of the bye week, he's a risky, but a viable option.

Andrew Hawkins/WR/CIN has been a fantasy gem the first three games of the season. He has scored twice and is averaging almost 70 yards receiving per game.  With 12 receptions in three games, he has extra value in PPR scoring leagues.

Darrius Heyward-Bey/WR/OAK suffered a concussion and neck injury last week against the Steelers.  He will recover, but is expected to miss an extended number of games.

Denarius Moore/WR/OAK will be counted on a lot more with the injury to WR Darrius Heyward-Bey.


TIGHT ENDS

Brandon Myers/TE/OAK has 15 receptions in 3 games this season and is worth a look as the bye weeks begin.  Also, with the injury to WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Myers will be counted on more.

Antonio Gates/TE/SD is somewhat limited with a rib injury, but I like the fact he has been targeted by QB Philip Rivers 15 times in the two games he's played this season.  With the Chiefs having given up 3 TD's to opposing TE's in 3 games, I'd take my chances with Gates this week.

Jacob Tamme/TE/DEN has been targeted 19 times in the first 3 games by QB Peyton Manning.  He is a key look for Manning in the red zone.  I like him in most fantasy line-ups this week based on the fact that the Raiders have allowed 3 receiving TD's to opposing TE's on the season.

Dante Rosario/TE/SD came off a 3 TD game in week 2, with only 1 reception for zero yards in week 3.  This was because TE Antonio Gates was out week 2 and played the full game week 3.  Rosario has very limited fantasy value unless Gates is not on the field.

Aaron Hernandez/TE/NE suffered an ankle injury week 2.  The original word was Hernandez was going to miss 4-6 weeks but, keep an eye on this situation as New England does not like to disclose too much on player's injuries.  For fantasy, consider him week to week.

Owen Daniels/TE/HOU has a good match-up this week against the Tennessee Titans.  The Titans have allowed 8 passing TD's in the first three games and 5 have gone to opposing TE's.

Dennis Pitta/TE/BAL has 2 TD's and 18 receptions in 3 games giving him additional value in PPR scoring leagues.  I like his chances against the Browns this week, who have struggled in their pass defense since the start of the season.

Rob Gronkowski/TE/NE is facing a Buffalo Bills defense this week that has yet to give up a passing TD to an opposing TE.  Considering his 14 receptions and 2 TD's in 3 games, I would still have him in my fantasy line-up this week.

Jared Cook/TE/TEN is a good look for QB Jake Locker this week.  Houston has given up 2 short yardage passing TD's in the last 2 games.

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