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Grogan Verdict Week 6: Kelly's Judgement
 
The Grogan Verdict by Kelly Grogan (10/10/12)

Week 6


Bye Week: Carolina, Chicago, Jacksonville and New Orleans


It's not the goal to address every player or decision in the fantasy world each week.  Some players are no brainers... week to week starters.  What we are trying to address are those players in the grey area and assist you in making those tough decision.  Remember, not all scoring systems are the same so take into account your specific scoring system.


QUARTERBACKS

Tony Romo/QB/DAL has been struggling of late with only 2 TD passes in his last 3 games while throwing 7 interceptions.  Facing a Baltimore team this week that has allowed only 2 passing TD's on the season, Romo is a higher risk fantasy option this week.

Josh Freeman/QB/TB is facing a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has allowed 10 passing TD's in their first 5 games.  But, they did a great job against Ravens QB Joe Flacco last week, holding him to 187 yards passing and no TD's.  I don't expect a big passing day from Freeman since the Chiefs are allowing a little over 220 yards passing on average to opposing QB's on the season.

Russell Wilson/QB/SEA has thrown more than 1 passing TD in a game this season just once.  But, with that said, he faces a New England team that has allowed 10 passing TD's in their last three games.  It's risky, but Wilson could be used this week as a fill in for the bye week.

Philip Rivers/QB/SD has thrown 2 or more TD passes in 3 of his last 4 games.  Even though the Broncos defense has allowed just 1 passing TD in their last two games, this one could be a shootout.  I would take my chances with Rivers as a starting fantasy QB at home, on Monday Night, against the Broncos.

Andrew Luck/QB/IND has thrown at least 2 TD passes in each of his last 3 games and he is averaging over 300 yards passing per game for the season.  Not bad for a rookie.  This week he faces a Jets team that plays the pass pretty well having allowed only 1 passing TD in their last 3 games.  I would take my chances with Luck as a starting fantasy QB again this week.

Andy Dalton/QB/CIN is facing a Browns defense that has allowed 10 passing TD's in their last 4 games.  With Dalton having posted 3 multi passing TD games in his last 4 outings, I like Dalton as a starting fantasy option this week.

Matt Schaub/QB/HOU faces a Packers defense that has allowed 7 passing TD's in their last 3 games.  Even though Schaub threw only 1 TD pass last game against the Jets and has only 2 multi passing TD games on the season, I like his chances against this Packers defense.  This has the potential to be a high scoring game.

Peyton Manning/QB/DEN has thrown 2 or more TD passes in every game but one this season.  There is no reason to sit him this week against the Chargers that has given up 7 passing TD's in their last 3 games.

Joe Flacco/QB/BAL has posted some good passing yardage games, but has only 2 games of 2 or more TD's this season.  It's not an easy match-up for him this week against a Dallas defense that only once this season has allowed more than 1 passing TD in a game.

Mark Sanchez/QB/NYJ has thrown only 3 TD passes in his last 4 games, Sanchez is not a strong fantasy option on a week to week basis.  But, if you have to play him, this may not be a bad week.  The Colts have allowed 8 passing TD's in their 4 games, but keep an eye on the Tebow situation.

Brandon Weeden/QB/CLV has 5 passing TD's on the season, but all have come in 3 of 5 games.  With the Bengals having allowed only 2 passing TD's in their last 3 games, Weeded is a risky fantasy option this week.

Matt Ryan/QB/ATL has thrown 2 or more TD passes in every game this season.  He is a must start in all fantasy leagues this week.  I like the fact that the Raiders have allowed 7 passing TD's in their last 2 games.

Carson Palmer/QB/OAK has had only 1 multi passing TD game this season.  He has a tough match-up this week facing the Atlanta Falcons that have allowed more than 1 TD pass in a game just once this season.  Palmer is a risky fantasy option this week.

Brady Quinn/QB/KC may get the starting assignment this week against the Buccaneers who have not allowed a TD pass in their last 2 games.  But, the Bucs are not world beaters on defense and will bend on the yardage.  If you are really stuck with the bye week, it's a bit risky with Quinn as a starting fantasy option, but the Bucs are allowing an average of over 350 yards passing per game on the season.

Matt Cassel/QB/KC suffered a concussion last week against the Ravens.  With the Chiefs bye coming up week 7, I expect Cassel will not play this week against the Buccaneers.

Tom Brady/QB/NE has not thrown more than 1 TD pass in 3 of his 5 games this season.  Normally he's a no brainer fantasy starter on a week to week basis.  But, he has a tough match-up this week facing a Seahawks defense that has allowed only 3 passing TD's on the season.


RUNNING BACKS

Donald Brown/RB/IND has not scored since week 1, but is averaging almost 16 touches per game.  He is not involved in the passing very much which hurts his fantasy value.  Interestingly, the Colts do not have a red zone rushing TD this season. Brown will miss the next 2-3 weeks after having a minor knee procedure and Vick Ballard will start in his place. Ballard hasn't been impressive, but this will be his first chance to get a big workload.

Darren McFadden/RB/OAK has a tough match-up this week against the Falcons.  But, in his favor, the Falcons have allowed 6 rushing TD's in their first 4 games while allowing 5.0+ ypc to opposing backs.  McFadden should be considered an RB2/3 starting option this week.

Marshawn Lynch/RB/SEA is the featured ball carrier for the Seahawks and even though the Patriots have allowed only 2 rushing TD's on the season, it would be tough to leave Lynch out of most fantasy line-ups this week.

Doug Martin/RB/TB has not been consistent enough to be a solid fantasy starter each week.  Only once, week 1, has he been over 90 yards rushing in a game this season.  There is an opportunity this week with the Chiefs allowing 4.5 ypc to opposing backs on the season.  I like Martin as an RB3 /flex option this week.

Willis McGahee/RB/DEN can be hot or cold.  Last game he made some critical errors against the Patriots which led to the Broncos defeat.  I really don't think the coaching staff is considering reducing his rushing opportunities.  With the Chargers allowing almost 4.0 ypc on the season, McGahee is starting fantasy back again the week.

Demarco Murray/RB/DAL has just one 100+ yard rushing game on the season and only 1 rushing TD.  The Ravens are allowing just 3.5 ypc to opposing backs which makes this match-up a tough one for Murray.

Cedric Benson/RB/GB injured his foot last game and will miss at least eight weeks.  The Packers are expected to use a RBBC approach with Alex Green, James Starks and FB John Kuhn. 

Stevan Ridley/RB/NE has had 2 big games the last 2 weeks rushing for 257 yards and scoring 3 times.  He faces a tough Seahawks defense that has allowed just 2 rushing TD's on the season.  With Seattle giving up just over 3 ypc on the season, I don't see Ridley much more than an RB3/flex option this week.

Ryan Mathews/RB/SD has returned the last 3 weeks with 36 rushing attempts for 185 yards and 1 TD.  The Broncos are normally tough against the run, but they gave up 3 rushing TD's last week to the Patriots.  I do like Mathews as a starting fantasy RB this week against Denver.

Jamaal Charles/RB/KC has rushed for 465 yards in his last 3 games, while scoring 4 times. Tampa Bay is tough against the run, but I would take my chances with Charles this week.  With QB Matt Cassel expected out with the concussion he suffered last week against Baltimore, the Chiefs could look more to run in this one.

Brandon Bolden/RB/NE has 30 rushing attempts for 191 yards in his last 2 games.  It's not very easy to run on the Seahawks, but Bolden could be used as a flex option this week in larger leagues.

BenJarvis Green-Ellis/RB/CIN has not been as consistent for most fantasy players this season, but with the Browns allowing 4.8 ypc and given enough carries, Green-Ellis is worth an RB 3/flex option this week.

Shonn Greene/RB/NYJ is averaging just 2.5 ypc in his last 4 games and he hasn't found the end zone since week 1.  He has a little better match-up this week against the Colts that are allowing 4.7 ypc this season.  But the key for Greene is that he needs to get the rushing opportunities.  His 19 carries in the last 2 games is not enough to consider as a strong fantasy play.


WIDE RECEIVERS

Darrius Heyward-Bey/WR/OAK was injured against the Broncos in week 4.  With a bye last week, he is expected to return this week against the Falcons.  It's not an easy match-up for him with Atlanta not allowing 100 yards to any opposing receiver yet this season.  In addition, they have only given up 5 passing TD's on the season.

Sidney Rice/WR/SEA has been targeted 28 times by QB Russell Wilson in their 5 games this season.  With the Patriots giving up 10 passing TD's in their last 3 games, I would take my chances with Rice in my fantasy line-up this week.

Dwayne Bowe/WR/KC is facing a Buccaneers defense that has given up four 100+ yard receiving games to 4 receivers in their first 4 games.  Even though QB Brady Quinn may get the start this week due to an injury (concussion) last week to QB Matt Cassel, I like Bowe as a fantasy play this week against the Buccaneers.

Miles Austin/WR/DAL has 4 receiving TD's on the season and has been targeted 29 times by QB Tony Romo in their 4 games.  Austin is a lock fantasy starter again this week, especially in PPR scoring formats.

Brandon Lloyd/WR/NE has only 1 receiving TD on the season, but has 15 receptions in his last 3 games.  Honestly, I did expect more from him, but he does have good value in PPR scoring systems.  But, it's really not a great match-up for him this week with the Seahawks not allowing an opposing receiver over 63 yards receiving in any game this season.

James Jones/WR/GB is a key look for QB Aaron Rodgers in the red zone and has additional value with WR Greg Jennings dealing with a groin injury.  Also, with RB Cedric Benson out the next 8 weeks with a foot injury, the Packers are expected to rely on their passing game a bit more.  I like Jones this week as a WR3/flex option in most fantasy leagues.

Eric Decker/WR/DEN has 19 receptions and 2 scores in his last 23 games and Decker is becoming a strong fantasy play each week.  I like the fact that he has been targeted 28 times in the last 3 games by QB Peyton Manning.  With the Chargers allowing 9 passing TD's in their last 3 games, Decker is a must start in most fantasy leagues.

Andre Johnson/WR/HOU has not had more than 3 receptions in a game since week 1, that's a concern.  In his last game, the Jets defense keyed on him.   But, I'd still keep him in my fantasy line-up this week as he is facing a Packers defense that has allowed 7 passing TD's in their last 3 games.

Malcom Floyd/WR/SD has two 100+ yard receiving games in the last 4 weeks.  He is a key look for QB Philip Rivers and it would be hard not to have him in most fantasy line-ups this week.

Robert Meachem/WR/SD finally produced some fantasy numbers last week with 2 TD receptions.  With only 9 receptions in the Chargers 5 games, he's still a risky fantasy option on a week to week basis.

Andrew Hawkins/WR/CIN is averaging 59 yards receiving and 4 receptions per game, not big numbers, but 13 targets last game against Miami may indicate something.  With the Browns allowing 10 passing TD's in their last 4 games, Hawkins is worthy of a flex consideration this week.

Mike Williams/WR/TB is coming off a 4 catch, 115 yard reception game in week 4 prior to their bye. This week he faces a Chiefs defense that has allowed 10 passing TD's in their first 4 games.  I would take my chances with Mile Williams as starting fantasy WR this week.

Donnie Avery/WR/IND was targeted 8 times last game by QB Andrew Luck and that's right in line with his season average.  I thought we may see a little bump up in his targets with WR Austin Collie (knee) being placed on IR, but 8 is good.  With WR Reggie Wayne is having a tremendous season, Avery is a flex option at best with the bye weeks.

Ty Hilton/WR/IND he will see additional playing time with WR Austin Collie being placed on IR with ruptured patella tendon (knee), but will compete with WR Donnie Avery for playing time which makes him somewhat of a risky fantasy play week to week.

Jordan Norwood/WR/CLV has been targeted 19 times by QB Brandon Weeden in the last 2 games while pulling in 13 receptions.  Keep an eye on this situation.  Norwood has benefited the last 2 weeks with WR's Mohamed Massaquoi and Travis Benjamin out with hamstring injuries.  If the situation continues, Norwood is a fantasy option as a fill in on the bye week, especially in PPR scoring formats.

Anquan Boldin/WR/BAL has come on of late.  He has been targeted 29 times by QB Joe Flacco in the last 3 games.  But, it's not a perfect match-up for him this week facing a Dallas defense that has given up 2 passing TD's in a game just once this year.  With 26 receptions in his 5 games, he does have more value in PPR scoring formats.

Julio Jones/WR/ATL had only 1 reception in week 4 for 30 yards, but he bounced back with 10 catches for 94 yards and a TD last week against the Redskins.  I like his match-up this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed 7 passing TD's in their last 2 games.


TIGHT ENDS

Antonio Gates/TE/SD has not had more than 4 receptions in any game this season and he has yet to find the end zone in 2012.  But, with the Broncos have given up 3 passing TD's to opposing TE's in their first 5 games, I still consider Gates a strong fantasy consideration this week.

Joel Dreessen/TE/DEN has scored 3 times in the last 3 games.  Yes, TE Jacob Tamme maybe the no. 1 TE for the Broncos, but Dreessen does take advantage of the opportunities he gets.  He is not a bad fill in on a bye week against a Chargers defense that has allowed 9 passing TD's in their last 3 games.

Owen Daniels/TE/HOU has scored 3 times in the last 3 games.  He has been targeted 16 times by QB Matt Schaub in those games. With the Packers having allowed 7 passing TD's in their last 3 games, Daniels is a no brainer fantasy starter this week.

Jermichael Finley/TE/GB suffered a shoulder injury last game, but the Packers are saying he has a "chance" to play this week against the Texans.  But, if he can't play, TE D.J. Williams will handle the TE duties. 

Dwayne Allen/TE/IND has scored twice in the last three games. He is not a big yardage guy, but is a key look for QB Andrew Luck in the red zone.  He is still a risky fantasy option, but could fill in on your roster during the bye weeks.

Dennis Pitta/TE/BAL has been a no-show the last 2 games with only 3 receptions.  He is a risky option this week facing a Dallas defense that has allowed only 5 passing TD's in their 4 games.

Jason Witten/TE/DAL was not on the injury report (spleen) for the Cowboys last game, for the first time this season.  He has struggled with his share of drops, but exploded last game with 13 receptions for 112 receiving yards and a TD.  It was his first game this season without a drop.  It's a tough match-up this week for him facing a Ravens defense that has yet to allow a TD to an opposing TE, but they will give up receiving yardage.  Since I do have Witten on one of my fantasy teams, I'll take a chance with him as a starter with the Cowboys coming off a bye week.

Jermaine Gresham/TE/CIN is averaging 57 yards receiving and 5 receptions in his last 3 games.  If you are impacted with the bye week and looking for a TE, Gresham has value, especially in PPR scoring formats.

Dustin Keller/TE/NYJ has been dealing with a hamstring injury and has hasn't seen the field since week 1 when he recorded 1 reception for 7 yards.  He was inactive again last game and should not be included in any fantasy line-up until he is 100% healthy.

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