NFC East Quarterbacks Preview
The fantasy spin on the QB situations for the 4 NFC East teams
We're getting into the dog days of summer now. This is the great calm before the storm that will be the 2013 fantasy football season. We're kind of in a quiet "watch" mode. With that in mind, I figured now is as good a time as any to do divisional reviews of the QB situation for each division.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Starter: Tony Romo
Backup: Kyle Orton
Few NFL QB's are as maligned as Romo. Few fantasy QB's don't get the respect they deserve as much as Romo either. Since 2007, Romo has averaged 275.1 passing yards per game and 1.9 passing TD's. In the 4 seasons he's been the starter for all 16 games, he has eclipsed 4,000 passing yards in each and thrown 121 TD's. In the last 8 games of 2012 he threw for 2,300 yards (287.5 avg) and 16 TD's. Romo takes a lot of heat for the Cowboys not winning more NFL games or winning in the playoffs, but for fantasy purposes, he's been just outside of the elite QB's. Currently, according to his ADP (Average Draft Position) he's being undervalued as the 12th QB selected. With Dez Bryant coming into his own as one of the elite WR's, and a plethora of other weapons to throw to, Romo is a guy you may be able to get in rounds 6-8 who still produces great fantasy numbers. There is a little concern about surgery to remove a cyst in his back several weeks ago, but Romo is fully expected to be fine for training camp. Orton is one of the better backup QB's in the league as he has a lot of starting experience and has proven himself capable.
New York Giants
Starter: Eli Manning
Backup: David Carr/Ryan Nassib
After falling just short of 5,000 passing yards in 2011, Manning threw for nearly 1,000 yards fewer in 2012 as injuries plagued his WR's. Manning is durable (he hasn't missed a start for 8 consecutive seasons) and has the ability to be a capable starting fantasy QB when all his weapons are healthy. A return to top 10 fantasy QB status for him in 2013 is certainly doable but I'd feel better about him being one of the top backup fantasy QB's as consistency eludes him. 18 of his 26 TD passes in 2012 came in just 5 games. In 4 games, he had zero TD passes. Because of his durability we haven't had to see a reminder of just how terrible Carr is and we probably won't get a chance to see much of Nassib (who apparently was drafted to be Manning's backup for the foreseeable future).
Philadelphia Eagles
Starter: Michael Vick (projected)
Backup: Nick Foles/Matt Barkley
While there is a lot of talk about a QB competition between Vick and Nick Foles, it's believed that it is Vick's job to lose. IF Vick wins the starting job, he should be a good fit for Chip Kelly's offense. Vick is still a dual threat weapon with the ability to put up fantasy points with his legs and he is only 3 years removed from a 2010 season that made him a consideration as the 1st overall pick in 2011 fantasy drafts. IF Vick gets into a groove with this new offense, there's an excellent chance he becomes a strong starting fantasy QB. But there's also a chance Vick doesn't get it and ends up behind Nick Foles. As usual, Vick is a very high risk/very high reward type of fantasy QB. While Foles hasn't been eliminated from being the Eagles starting QB in 2013, I believe it more likely he will be a backup to Michael Vick. That or he'll be traded during preseason. Especially if the rookie Barkley shows well.
Washington Redskins
Starter: Robert Griffin III
Backup: Kirk Cousins
RG3 was one of the most electrifying players in fantasy football in 2012 before a week 14 knee injury. He returned sooner than he should have from that injury and needed complete reconstructive surgery on his right knee due to multiple ligament tears. His rehab has reportedly gone as good as it possibly can and while it's not a sure thing, there is plenty of optimism that he will be ready to start week 1 of the 2013 season. There have been conflicting reports about whether the team will scale back any of RG3's rushing attempts, but until I hear otherwise, I have no problem with RG3 as a solid starting fantasy QB. That said, I would STRONGLY recommend that if you draft RG3 as your starter, you get some insurance by selecting a high upside backup fantasy QB. You could also consider spending a late round pick on Griffin's backup in Washington, Kirk Cousins. Cousins showed well in relief of Griffin in 2012. It's rare I would have a QB handcuff, but this would be one of those cases where I would consider it.
Willis McGahee: Where He Fits Best
Career still has some mileage left in it
With the release of veteran RB Willis McGahee, the Denver Broncos have solidified rookie Montee Ball's position as the primary RB for them in 2013. While normally head coach John Fox has been hesitant to start rookies right away, he clearly has no other option and besides, Ball is plenty ready to step in and be the power RB complement to what promises to be one of the best passing attacks in the league. Don't be surprised if Ball flirts with 1,200 rushing yards and double digit TD's this season.
But where does this leave McGahee? Despite the fact he'll turn 32 years old in October he's easily the best of the remaining RB available in free agency. McGahee has been better than expected the last 2 seasons in Denver. After rushing for 1,199 yards and 4 TD's in 15 games in 2011, McGahee was on pace to duplicate the rushing yards and better the TD's before suffering a season ending knee injury and broken leg in week 11. He was even proving to be capable catching the ball putting his second best receiving yards total (221) of his career despite only playing in 10 games. As long as he is fully healed up McGahee shouldn't find it difficult to find work. There are certainly some teams that could use him.
St. Louis Rams: The Rams lack a proven power style RB. Rookie Zac Stacy is expected to fill that role but he is a rookie and whether he really turns out to be as good as I think he will is unknown. Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson are not big RB's who are likely to pound the ball between the tackles much.
San Diego Chargers: Would make a nice insurance policy for starter Ryan Mathews as Mathews has been unable to stay healthy and on the field despite his talent. His backups, Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown, are role players at best and not suited for taking over more of a featured position.
Oakland Raiders: Darren McFadden's talent is almost as legendary as his inability to make it thru a regular season without missing games because of injury. Behind McFadden are rookie Latavius Murray (who has generated a lot of hype for a 6th round pick) and Jacksonville cast-off Rashard Jennings. McGahee would easily become the top backup here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: While Doug Martin was both better than advertised and durable (played all 16 games) as a rookie last year, the depth behind him is lacking. Former Bengals role player Brian Leonard is the top backup with Michael Smith and rookie Mike James behind him. Leonard is a plodder with little wiggle or speed. Smith is a speed guy but appears to have fallen out of favor despite it. James is a lot like Leonard, only younger.
Dallas Cowboys: Much like Darren McFadden in Oakland, Cowboys' lead RB Demarco Murray is an immense talent that has yet to make it thru a regular season without missing games with injury. Rookie Joseph Randle was drafted to be his backup, but he is unproven and has missed all of the off-season programs because of a hand injury. Behind him are only Lance Dunbar and Phillip Tanner, both of whom were very disappointing when given chances in 2012. Of all the places McGahee could land, I can see him in a Cowboys uniform easiest.
And of course, there's always the chance that McGahee will just wait until training camp injuries start to happen and a team can offer him more of a featured role. But approaching age 32, McGahee should be happy to finish out the final years of his career as a top backup and power complement.
Tebowmania Hits New England!
Patriots sign Tim Tebow: Reunites with Josh McDaniels
Tim Tebow: New England Patriot. The words go together like peanut butter and olive loaf.
I know several weeks ago I blogged about how Tebow deserved better than he received from the Jets. Not because he is a good QB (he's not) but because he handled himself with class during their debacle and was never given a chance despite the Jets having nothing to lose. But of all the places Tebow could have landed, the Patriots seemed the least likely.
It was reported by Yahoo several weeks ago that Patriots Coach Bill Belichick "hates" Tebow. So a reunion with Tebow and the coach who made him a first round draft pick back in 2010 (Josh McDaniels, who is now the Patriots offensive coordinator) was deemed to be a pipe dream. Should have guessed it was most likely just blowing smoke.
However, an even more than normally unhappy looking Belichick cut short his press conference today to address the signing. Peppered with what seemed like questions he should have expected, Belichick seemed disgruntled having to answer questions about why the Patriots signed him, and what position he is going to play? His answers of how talented Tebow is, and that the Patriots will do what is best for the team just had the feeling of someone who has had a player forced on him.
Get used to it Bill. It comes with the Tebowmania that follows him wherever he goes.
Maybe it was McDaniels saying that he'd rather have Tebow to develop than Mike Kafka (the 3rd string QB released by the Patriots when they signed Tebow)? Maybe it was Bob Kraft seeing some type of marketing deal? Maybe it was secret resentment that the Bruins and Red Sox were getting all the media love in Boston while the Patriots were still being questioned for letting Wes Welker get away to a conference rival? Who knows?
Or maybe it was that they were intrigued by the fact that Tebow, despite his shortcomings as a typical NFL quarterback simply has the heart of a winner? Has proven capable of defying the conventional thinking of "he can't win as a quarterback" by having won as a starter in the NFL? Maybe there is some magic there that an organization lie the Patriots can develop? McDaniels obvious saw something in Tebow when he made him a first round selection while running the show in Denver. Now this sounds more like the Belichick we know. And it cost the Patriots nothing besides their already established 3rd string QB. Reportedly, there was no guaranteed money in the two year deal Tebow signed.
Can McDaniels and Belichick develop Tebow? Can they find the right mix of uniting poor traditional QB skills but intriguing talent with an offense that can win in the NFL? Maybe. Maybe not. We won't know until it's tried. And since Tom Brady has a couple more years left in him, there will be no rush to find out. And at worse, they simply cut Tebow without any financial ramification.
So for now, let the media hype this up. It gives them more of what they know the public likes: Tim Tebow.
2013 Fantasy Quarterback Situations to Avoid
4 NFL teams have bleak fantasy QB prospects in 2013
Heading into the 2013 fantasy season, there are a few teams that have competition's going on at the QB spot. Now the rule of thumb for fantasy football drafts when it comes to quarterbacks in situations like this is to either completely ignore these teams or to take a late round flier on the young guy. Usually when a team has a veteran competing with a rookie it means the veteran hasn't done well enough in his career to be considered a firm starter. In cases like that, unless the rookie has phenomenal skills, it has typically meant the veteran will get first crack to play himself out of the job (which he usually does). There are a few QB situations in the NFL that I will be avoiding like the plague come draft day and I recommend you do to.
Team: Oakland Raiders
Contenders: Matt Flynn, Tyler Wilson
Wilson was getting a lot of pub early in OTA's but Flynn is expected to be the starter for Oakland week 1. Flynn isn't a superior talent and while he is remembered for a couple of great statistical games in Green Bay, he isn't surrounded by nearly the same talent in Oakland. It takes a lot of imagination to believe that, at best, Flynn will be more than a mediocre backup fantasy QB in 2013. There's also a very good chance that if he fails to get wins or has a couple of poor games (both of which are very possible), he could lose the starting job to the rookie Wilson. I'd stay away from Flynn on draft day.
Team: Buffalo Bills
Contenders: Kevin Kolb, E.J. Manuel, Tarvaris Jackson
Kolb is battling both rookie Manuel and veteran Jackson for the Bills starting job. I have a hard time believing Jackson actually stands any realistic chance to win it since he was the holdover from the prior coaching staff while the team signed Kolb in free agency and then selected Manuel in the first round of the 2013 draft. While Manuel will be given every chance to win the starting job, I think Buffalo will acknowledge that Manuel is more of a project than a ready talent to start right away. I expect Kolb to be the first game starter and I also expect him to have a chance of doing well for a while. But consistency (both in game performances and ability to avoid missing games because of injury) is hard to count on with Kolb and sooner or later I expect he will play his way out of the job before the Bills decide to get Manuel some valuable in game experience towards the end of the season.
Team: New York Jets
Contenders: Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith
While there's a chance the rookie Smith will beat out Mark Sanchez in preseason and start in week 1, I'm expecting the Jets to give Sanchez one more chance to redeem himself by starting the 2013 season. I also expect that will be because Smith isn't going to "wow" anyone in preseason. But I also fully expect that after a few games, Sanchez will have played himself back into the doghouse and that Smith be given a chance to get some good experience the rest of the 2013 season. Not all the blame can be placed on Sanchez as it doesn't help him (or Smith eventually) that his WR and TE corps is possibly the worst in the league. And even if Sanchez is the first game starter, I want no part of him on my fantasy football roster. Equally, in re-draft leagues, I would stay away from Smith as the whole Jets QB situation is better set up for failure than success. In dynasty league's Smith could be a late round flier. And if I had to choose one of the two for 2013, I would say Smith is the better Jets QB to have. He hasn't had the chance to play himself out of all consideration like Sanchez has.
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Contenders: Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne
Henne had better stats last season as the Jags starting QB, but the team is again likely to give Gabbert one more chance to prove he isn't a complete and utter first round draft bust. If Henne doesn't win the job by a substantial margin, I expect the Jags to start the 2013 season with Gabbert at the helm. However, I haven't seen nearly enough potential out of Gabbert to think he will last as the starter for long. And it is only a matter of time before the Jags will turn to Henne. However, unless Henne shows improvement himself (he's never been more than mediocre or else he would walk away with this competition) he wouldn't be someone I would be thinking as more than a desperation acquisition during the fantasy season. Henne showed he can have some good statistical games last season, but consistency has always eluded him. I'm not going out on much of a limb by saying the Jags starting QB for the 2014 season isn't currently on the roster.
Fantasy Football Radio Show Returns!
17th season of The Red Zone to start in August
Well, another year, another season of my fantasy football radio show!
I met with Santisi Brother's Pizzeria and Sports Grill and NBCSports Radio AM 1060 in Phoenix, Arizona yesterday and we came to an agreement for bringing back my radio show, "The Red Zone: Talking Fantasy Football and the NFL" for the 17th consecutive year.
For those new to this blog or to Fantasy Football Starters, I started a radio show dedicated to fantasy football and the NFL back in 1997. Back then you couldn't get a television network to talk fantasy football. There wasn't any stat tracker. Announcers and color analysts didn't mention it. NFL shows shunned it and those who played it were widely ridiculed.
Amazing how times have changed. How attitudes have changed. Now you can hardly get thru any sports radio show from August thru December without fantasy football being mentioned! And you can bet that once again, I'll be amongst them as I devote my show to it.
For those in Phoenix, the show starts Tuesday, August 20th and I will be on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday evenings from 6-7pm Arizona time. And once again, all three nights I will be doing the show from Santisi Brothers inviting people to come out and play the free fantasy football challenge game I have been running out there since 1999. The last show will be on Thursday, December 26th. The show won't be on Thanksgiving night, Christmas Eve, or Christmas Day.
I am hopeful we will again be carrying a live stream of the show here at STARTERS. I would assume so, but I have to do some work on that still. I'll let you know when I know for sure one way or the other.
I can't wait to start up again. Every year it is a lot of fun and thru it I have been able to meet many of our STARTERS members that are local in the Phoenix area. I look forward to seeing those who can make it out again this season!