RB's and WR's continue to dominate until near the end of round 4
Continuing to update you on the DraftCalc Classic Dynasty Expert's League draft, we have blown thru rounds 3 and 4 now. It's always easy to make selections in the first couple of rounds as the highest quality players are easily identified. But starting in round 3, that's usually where you start to see the vast differences in how each expert ranks players and how they are going about putting together their teams.
If you haven't been following you ca the results from the first two rounds:
We had our first trade in round 3. Smitty at DraftCalc traded back into round 3 for a second pick. He acquired the 5th pick of the round and the 8th pick of round 20 from Ray at Fantasy Knuckleheads for the 12th pick of round 6 and the 1st pick of round 7.
Here is how round 3 shaped up:
1) RB Lamar Miller (DraftCalc; comment: "Can't pass up this Monster breakout of ours! We could be looking at a top 5-10RB season out of Miller this year!")
2) TE Aaron Hernandez (FootballGuys; comment: "Hernandez is going to be a fixture of the Belichick offense for years to come. He is a tight end in a wide receiver's body that is perfect for New England's offense. There's not a lot of high end tight ends and Hernandez fits that role - plus he still has youth on his side. It's good to have position dominance in dynasty leagues. I'll have a good weapon for my tight end for years to come.")
3) WR Larry Fitzgerald (Bruno Boys)
4) RB Matt Forte (RotoProfessor)
5) WR Victor Cruz (DraftCalc; comment: "An undervalued low-end WR1.")
6) RB Stevan Ridley (Xs & Ys Podcast; comment: "Young, no health concerns and he's carrying the mail for a prolific offense. Should get lots of goal line looks. One of the safer bets at a scary position.")
7) WR Andre Johnson (Wild Thing Football)
8) QB Cam Newton (FantasyIndex; comment: "Quite happy to have Cam Newton, fake smile and all, leading my team for the foreseeable future.")
9) RB Le'Veon Bell (DrFootball; comment: "most upside w/o injury risk")
10) WR Hakeem Nicks (Dynasty Football Warehouse)
11) RB Eddie Lacy (Fantasy Taz)
12) RB Reggie Bush (Fantasy Football Starters; comment: "Bush has been a top 15 ppr fantasy RB the last 2 seasons in Miami. Last year in Detroit, the trio of Joique Bell, Mikel Leshoure, and Kevin Smith caught 96 passes. No reason to think that Bush won't catch 60+ this season in the motor city.")
My observations from round 3:
*-Again, Smitty at DraftCalc isn't afraid of making the bold move. There's a lot of hype surrounding Lamar Miller and while he is easily the top RB in Miami, he needs to prove he can handle a full load. Explosive potential though.
*-If Carson Palmer stays upright in Arizona, Bruno Boys getting Larry Fitzgerald in round 3 will prove to be a steal.
*-Gutsy move by FantasyIndex making Cam Newton the second QB selected. If Newton develops more consistency as a passer, this could be a brilliant pick. His production the last half of 2012 was stellar as he went from being a fantasy bust the first 8 games to finishing as a top 5 fantasy QB. However I rated 4 other available QB's higher than Newton as I am concerned about his being able to take the step up to consistently producing.
*-Fantasy Taz snatched Eddie Lacy right before my pick. I was really hoping to get Lacy as I am not concerned about his toe or attitude and do believe he'll be a top 10 fantasy RB for the next several years. Luckily for me, 2 of the 3 RB's I had pegged for my back to back picks were still available. They're just not young like Lacy with many years left.
1) RB Steven Jackson (Fantasy Football Starters; comment: "I knew the run on the remaining good RB's was going to happen before my turn came around again in round 5 so I had to get 2 more here. I wanted Lacy but am more than happy to get Jackson. While he lacks long term appeal, I think he has at least one great season left in him, and possibly more than one as the Falcons new featured RB.")
2) RB Darren McFadden (Fantasy Taz)
3) WR Michael Crabtree (Dynasty Football Warehouse)
4) WR Roddy White (DrFootball; comment: "Couldn't pass him up")
5) RB DeMarco Murray (FantasyIndex; comment: "Uh, not a Cowboys fan. But since I considered Murray last pick, I am pleased to get him here. If he can stay healthy, he will be a nice back to have over the next several seasons")
6) RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Wild Thing Football)
7) RB Darren Sproles (Xs & Ys Podcast; comment: "Not a sexy pick from the dynasty perspective, but Sproles can still be a PPR powerhouse in the short term.")
8) QB Peyton Manning (Fantasy Knuckleheads)
9) RB Giovani Bernard (RotoProfessor)
10) WR Vincent Jackson (Bruno Boys; comment: "Too good to pass up at No. 46 overall")
11) QB Andrew Luck (FootballGuys; comment: "Very pleased to find Andrew Luck waiting for me at 4.11. I see Luck and Cam Newton as the premier young quarterback talents to target in dynasty leagues. When the QB run comes in the late 4th, early 5th, be prepared. I am thankful that I was on the early side of the run and was able to pick the quarterback I coveted.")
12) QB Robert Griffin III (DraftCalc)
My observations from round 4:
*-Dynasty Football Warehouse drafted WR's in each of the first 4 rounds. I know we start 3 and can flex another but sooner or later he's going to need to go for another position. However, I can say that he landed one of my favorite breakout WR's in 2013 in Michael Crabtree here. He now has 3 of my top 10 fantasy WR's for 2013.
*-Was a little surprised that Peyton Manning was the 3rd QB selected in this draft since it is a dynasty league, but can't argue too much about it as he was back with the elite in 2012 and should be even better in 2013. Fantasy Knuckleheads is going for the sure thing with few years left over high upside young guys. That's always one of the conundrums when drafting in dynasty leagues.
*-Really liked the Giovani Bernard pick as I think he'll catch 40-50 passes this season and split rushing duties with BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Then in 2014, I expect Bernard will be the 3 down starter for the Bengals.
*-I tried trading back into the last half of this round as I knew the QB run was going to happen near the turn and I was right. But I couldn't get a deal done. Failing that I resign myself to knowing that while I'm not going to get the young guy I really want by the time I get to pick again at the end of round 5, I think likely that I will still get a high quality QB at that spot, it is just a matter of which one?