4 NFL teams have bleak fantasy QB prospects in 2013
Heading into the 2013 fantasy season, there are a few teams that have competition's going on at the QB spot. Now the rule of thumb for fantasy football drafts when it comes to quarterbacks in situations like this is to either completely ignore these teams or to take a late round flier on the young guy. Usually when a team has a veteran competing with a rookie it means the veteran hasn't done well enough in his career to be considered a firm starter. In cases like that, unless the rookie has phenomenal skills, it has typically meant the veteran will get first crack to play himself out of the job (which he usually does). There are a few QB situations in the NFL that I will be avoiding like the plague come draft day and I recommend you do to.
Team: Oakland Raiders
Contenders: Matt Flynn, Tyler Wilson
Wilson was getting a lot of pub early in OTA's but Flynn is expected to be the starter for Oakland week 1. Flynn isn't a superior talent and while he is remembered for a couple of great statistical games in Green Bay, he isn't surrounded by nearly the same talent in Oakland. It takes a lot of imagination to believe that, at best, Flynn will be more than a mediocre backup fantasy QB in 2013. There's also a very good chance that if he fails to get wins or has a couple of poor games (both of which are very possible), he could lose the starting job to the rookie Wilson. I'd stay away from Flynn on draft day.
Team: Buffalo Bills
Contenders: Kevin Kolb, E.J. Manuel, Tarvaris Jackson
Kolb is battling both rookie Manuel and veteran Jackson for the Bills starting job. I have a hard time believing Jackson actually stands any realistic chance to win it since he was the holdover from the prior coaching staff while the team signed Kolb in free agency and then selected Manuel in the first round of the 2013 draft. While Manuel will be given every chance to win the starting job, I think Buffalo will acknowledge that Manuel is more of a project than a ready talent to start right away. I expect Kolb to be the first game starter and I also expect him to have a chance of doing well for a while. But consistency (both in game performances and ability to avoid missing games because of injury) is hard to count on with Kolb and sooner or later I expect he will play his way out of the job before the Bills decide to get Manuel some valuable in game experience towards the end of the season.
Team: New York Jets
Contenders: Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith
While there's a chance the rookie Smith will beat out Mark Sanchez in preseason and start in week 1, I'm expecting the Jets to give Sanchez one more chance to redeem himself by starting the 2013 season. I also expect that will be because Smith isn't going to "wow" anyone in preseason. But I also fully expect that after a few games, Sanchez will have played himself back into the doghouse and that Smith be given a chance to get some good experience the rest of the 2013 season. Not all the blame can be placed on Sanchez as it doesn't help him (or Smith eventually) that his WR and TE corps is possibly the worst in the league. And even if Sanchez is the first game starter, I want no part of him on my fantasy football roster. Equally, in re-draft leagues, I would stay away from Smith as the whole Jets QB situation is better set up for failure than success. In dynasty league's Smith could be a late round flier. And if I had to choose one of the two for 2013, I would say Smith is the better Jets QB to have. He hasn't had the chance to play himself out of all consideration like Sanchez has.
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Contenders: Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne
Henne had better stats last season as the Jags starting QB, but the team is again likely to give Gabbert one more chance to prove he isn't a complete and utter first round draft bust. If Henne doesn't win the job by a substantial margin, I expect the Jags to start the 2013 season with Gabbert at the helm. However, I haven't seen nearly enough potential out of Gabbert to think he will last as the starter for long. And it is only a matter of time before the Jags will turn to Henne. However, unless Henne shows improvement himself (he's never been more than mediocre or else he would walk away with this competition) he wouldn't be someone I would be thinking as more than a desperation acquisition during the fantasy season. Henne showed he can have some good statistical games last season, but consistency has always eluded him. I'm not going out on much of a limb by saying the Jags starting QB for the 2014 season isn't currently on the roster.