Player Profile
Name: Cody
Id: 100138
Membership: Retired
Joined: August 27, 2009
Total Posts: 3984
Favorite Team:
Signature (Text): - Fantasy Football Ninja
User bio: I'm awesome at fantasy football. True story.
Bonus Points: 0
Total Points: 0

  Topic Name Posts/Views Last Update
WRs - Pick two 5 / 984 09/08/13
Flacco or Schaub? 4 / 1181 09/27/12
Last Night's Draft 2 / 1166 09/09/12
Roy Helu 8 / 1272 08/29/12

  Post Name Last Update
James, I think you(like many others) fell in love with the big plays last year and they blinded you from the fact that his success just isn't sustainable in that manner. You just can't rely so heavily on athleticism and big plays alone. Lets have a little fun with numbers between Smith and Kaepernick and a few benchmark QBs. Last year Smith started 9 game going 6-2 while Kaepernick was 5-2 ... they both played a large part of the tie in StL so I threw it out. First lets look at passes thrown 10 or few yards in the air since it seems a large part of your problem with Smith is his game manager 'dink and dunk' style. Smith threw 74% of his 217 attempts 10 yards or less while of Kaep's 216 attempts only 62% where in that rank. Pretty big difference, but when we look at some of the games top passers Smith doesn't look as extremely conservative as he does in a direct comparison: P. Manning: 66% Brees: 68% Rodgers: 69% Brady: 70% Manning was the only one of the 4 that fell closer to Kaepernick than to Smith in percentage of short passes. Also, Smith completed 76% of those short passes to just 69% for Kaepernick. Those short plays are the types that keep drives from stalling and the chains moving. It is an important part of the game that Kaepernick currently he did in college. Now looking at where Kaepernick excelled as a passer..and coming back to why I said it was not sustainable; lets look at passes from 21-30 yards. Kaep threw 9% of his passes in this range for a staggering 79% completion rate. Here's our other QBs breakdown for percentage of passes thrown in that range: Smith: 4% for 63% completion Brees: 5% for 45% completion Brady: 7% for 34% completion Rodgers: 7% for 40% completion Manning: 8% for 44% completion Kaepernick: 9% for 79% completion Does something stand out here? Kaepernic threw the highest percentage of passes in the 21-30yd range and demolished everyone in completion percentage. This is basically like a baseball player hitting for a .600 might see it for a few outstanding stretches, but you are will not see it sustain over a season/career. Just how good was Kaep in this range? 24% of his yards came in that 21-30yd range(and 4 of his 10 TDs). Compared to the games best: Brees: 10% 5 of 43 TDs Brady: 10% 5 of 34 TDs Rodgers: 10% 8 of 39 TDs Manning: 12% 6 of 37 TDs It is simply not possible for CK to keep up anywhere near that pace in the long passes and we are starting to see that this year. With the big play taken away, he's unable to convert the types of (boring) plays Smith thrives on. I don't think anyone is saying that Smith is an elite QB, but most of us are able to see that CK has a lot to prove still. Will he ultimately be better than Smith? Maybe, maybe not...he better start working on the fundementals and stop posing for magazine covers though ;) 09/23/13 09:46
Not sure how many of you remember this old thread...thought of it recently and how crazy it is that Bush has now replaced Best in Detroit. 09/22/13 17:34
"IMO Harbaugh knew Smith isn't a game changing QB and Harbaugh had higher goals than just nice regular season winning percentages." This is an interesting statement. I could argue that your portrayal of Smith isn't necessarily correct, but lets go with that assumption. Sometimes a non 'game changer' isn't such a bad thing when you have a strong d and decent run game. Kaepernick can definitely be electric but he can change the game both good and bad. The last two games he has 6 turnovers and no TDs..that's changing the game alright. 09/22/13 16:55
I concede, Kaepernick really proved your point today. He was beast mode. 09/22/13 16:47

Lineup Contest Rosters
Select Week :
Brady, Tom 
Newton, Cam 
Rodgers, Aaron 
Running Backs
McFadden, Darren 
Peterson, Adrian 
Rice, Ray 
Wide Receivers
Johnson, Calvin 
Welker, Wes 
White, Roddy 
Tight Ends
Finley, Jermichael 
Graham, Jimmy 
Pettigrew, Brandon 
Gostkowski, Stephen 
Hanson, Jason  
Janikowski, Sebastian  

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