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Topic: Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game Much Better For Determining Matchups Than Just Yards
 Russ Bliss_108
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Post Date: 10/04/08 06:18
Almost all sites list the defensive rankings against the run and pass. And I’m going to get the falsehood of pass defensive rankings in a minute, so stay with me. First I’m going to look at run defenses. It’s just automatically assumed by many that these defensive rankings are the end all for determining the best matchups from your fantasy roster. After all, a defense that ranks 19th against the run should be an easier matchup for a RB than a defense that ranks 5th, right? Not always. The defensive rankings you get everywhere else are determined by one stat: average yards allowed. Now average yards allowed is an important stat. But in most fantasy leagues, we also get points for touchdowns. You remember touchdowns? After all, in your typical fantasy league each touchdown is equal to 60 rushing or receiving yards. But the defensive rankings you get do not include the amount of touchdowns a team allows to an opponent on the ground or thru the air. That is why they flawed.
 
 
I have created a system that incorporates both the rushing yards allowed and the number of rushing touchdowns a defense allows to give us a better set of defensive rankings. Let’s use the example of the 19th ranked run defense vs. that 5th ranked run defense. The Carolina Panthers are currently, thru week 4 of the 2008 season the NFL’s 19th ranked run defense allowing an average of 114.2 rushing yards per game. The New York Jets are the 5th ranked run defense allowing only 75.5 rushing yards per game. On this basis alone, you would think that a RB on your roster facing the Panthers would have the better matchup than a RB that is facing the Jets. But when we look at the fact Carolina has allowed only 1 rushing touchdown thru 4 games while the Jets have allowed 6, you start to see where the average yards allowed ranking may be flawed in terms of determining best and worst matchups from your fantasy roster. By incorporating my system of figuring in the rushing touchdowns allowed by those teams, you get the Rushing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game. And in that, it actually turns that the Carolina Panthers rank 10th overall in Rushing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game while the Jets rank 17th.
 
 
The formula I use is fairly simple. You take the total amount of rushing yards a defense has allowed on the season and divide it by 10. Set that total aside for moment. Take the total number of rushing touchdowns that defense has allowed and multiply it by 6. Take the result of that equation, add it to the rushing yards result and then divide the sum by the number of games played. This yields the true average amount of fantasy points allowed per game.
 
 
I’ll give an example here of how to apply it using both the Jets and Panthers so far this season.
 
 
Carolina has allowed a total of 457 rushing yards thru 4 games. 457 divided by 10 is 45.7.
Carolina has allowed 1 rushing touchdown thru 4 games. 1 multiplied by 6 is 6.
45.7 + 6 = 51.7
51.7 divided by 4 games = 12.93 Rushing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game (FP/PG)
 
 
The Jets have allowed 302 rushing yards thru 4 games. 302 divided by 10 is 30.2
Jets have allowed 6 rushing touchdowns thru 4 games. 6 multiplied by 6 is 36.
30.2 = 36 = 66.2
66.2 divided by 4 games = 16.55 Rushing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game (FP/PG)
 
 
Advantage? The RB facing the Jets. You get, on average more fantasy points per game. And of course, this system is updated every week for every team and by week 9 we have 8 games for every team; that’s half the season. By that time the average starts remaining fairly consistent and allows us to identify which RB’s have the best and worst strength of schedule for our fantasy playoff weeks.
 
 
Now this also works for passing defense. But again, the rankings are flawed because they don’t take into account the passing touchdowns allowed. In fact, the passing defense rankings you find everywhere are even more flawed than the run defense rankings because in determining passing defense yardage allowed, every other site out there is using what the NFL calls passing defense. The NFL passing defense rankings take the amount of yards a defense has allowed passing, and then subtracts out the amount of yards a defense gets back when they make a sack on the QB. In other words, if Jay Cutler throws for 300 yards, but gets sacked 4 times and loses a total of 26 yards on those sacks, the defense is credited for only allowing 274 passing yards. Even though they really allowed 300 passing yards, the NFL gives the defense back the yards from all sack totals. Now I can’t say I’ve played in every different type of fantasy football league out there. But I can say that I don’t know of a single league where those sack totals get counted back against a QB’s fantasy points totals. So how do we get the actual passing yards allowed by a defense without the sack totals? If you go to NFL.com, and go their team stats page. You will see at the bottom a section called “Sortable Stats - by League”. In the “View by defensive category” drop down bar, you pull up “Receiving”. This will show you the actual amount of receiving yards which are the actual amount of passing yards allowed by every defense without the sack yardage taken into consideration. This is the stat that is important for fantasy football owners to use. It’s called Receiving Yards allowed, or as I prefer to call it: Actual Passing Yards allowed.
 
 
Now the formula for calculating the Receiving Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game, is the same as it is for the Rushing FP/PG. You take the total amount of receiving yards a defense has allowed for the season, divide it by 10. Take the total amount of receiving touchdowns allowed, multiply it up by 6. Add the two numbers together and divide it by the number of games played. That will yield the Fantasy Points Per Game allowed thru the air and help in determining what WR’s and TE’s have the best or worst matchups.
 
 
Now you can also use the Receiving FP/PG for use on your QB matchups. Compiling these lists of Rushing and Receiving Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game is actually a lot simpler than it sounds once you get the hang of copying and pasting the raw data into a spreadsheet. NFL.com gives you a bunch of other stat categories within their rushing and receiving defense pages, but you only need to be concerned with 2: Yards and TD’s.
 
 
Fantasy Points Per Game: it’s simply a better way of determining your matchups than just yards. 
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On any given Sunday any fantasy team can beat another, only to still lose Monday night.
tony_8690
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Post Date: 10/04/08 11:06
Russ is this info used in your Lineup analyzer?  When we need to figure out which RB or Wr to start.
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ILWakeAir_75438
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Post Date: 10/04/08 11:37
That was exactly what I was wondering.
 
And this is the first time I have ever heard of this system and it makes total sense. I like it. Great work.
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ASU Alum 2008
tony_8690
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Post Date: 10/04/08 12:10
I have to pick between McNabb or Rivers.  The LA says go with McNabb, but using what u just said Russ.  Rivers would be a better player play Miami giving up 36.2pts vs Wash giving up 32.5.  Who would u start?
my league
pass
1pt=30 total yrds
6pt=td
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Donald_69978
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Post Date: 10/04/08 13:05
What does the # 10 stand for, why is this the # we use as a median?
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Keeper League
M Stafford
M Colston, B Lloyd, P Garcon, S Breaston, J Baldwin.
CJ2K, M Lynch, B Wells, D Thomas, CJ Spiller
V Davis

(Start 1QB,3WR,2RB,1TE) *No Flex
SCORING - 1pt 50yd passing / 1pt per completion
1 pt 10yd rushing / 1 pt 20yd recieving /
1pt per reception

(2nd team)
M Stafford
A Johnson, H Nicks, B Marshall, A Brown
D McFadden, W McGahee, S Greene, K Smith
J Finley

(Start 1QB,2WR,2RB,1TE,1Flex)
Scoring- 1pt 25yd passing/ 4pt passing tds
1pt 10 yd receivng & rushing
6pt receivng & rushing tds
 Russ Bliss_108
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Total Posts: 19876
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Post Date: 10/04/08 18:49
A similar system is used by the Lineup, Draft, Trade, and Team Analyzer's for figuring player rankings and recommendations each week. There is a lot more to a matchup than just a simple FP/PG formula in our Analyzer tools. Strength of QB, historical performances against c ertain team by a player and others around him on a team impact a projection, along with a few other factors.
 
The Fantasy Points Per Game Formula (FP/PG) is a quick reference for deciding matchup strength I've used for years. What I've posted here is nothing I haven't said in podcasts the last few years or on my radio show. I also have mentioned itbefore in my blog, but this is the first time I've gone into detail about calculating it.
 
As for Donald's question, I assume you're wondering why I use the # 10 to divide by? It is because in most fantasy leagues the formula is 1 point for every 10 yards rushing and/or receiving. You could easily use whatever the scoring system your league has if it is different for the yardage bonuses, but I've found generically when answering 30-40 calls on a two hour radio program that this simple formula is accurate for determining rankings for matchups.
 
I always encourage the enthusiastic to take their own scoring system formula and incorporate it. For leagues that use length of TD's for extra bonuses, the 20+ and 40+ columns can be used as well for weighting the equation to reflect probability of lengthy scores.  
 
Tony, post that question in the lineup help category. And understand the PLA uses more than just this simple reference on determining strength of matchup for deciding things. I had hoped posting this would help people understand why yardage rankings systems used by everyone else are flawed; not create a controversy in recommendations because of a 3.7 FP/PG difference between two solid QB options.
 
And before someone else posts something about the other positions: same thing.
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On any given Sunday any fantasy team can beat another, only to still lose Monday night.
Strictly Bizni$$_82830
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Post Date: 10/05/08 07:22
That is just Genius ! ! Luv it...
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Jay Cutler
Trent Edwards
RB-
Frank Gore
Ryan Grant
Jonathan Stewart
Michael Pittman
WR-
Anquan Boldin
Wes Welker
Lee Evans
Issac Bruce
TE-
Chris Cooley
Donald Lee
K-
Mason Crosby
Shaun Suisham
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Seattle
San Francisco

 Jeff Coruccini_6
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Post Date: 10/05/08 09:43
Russ, you can't be giving away all our "secret sauce" about the line-up analyzer and our predictions- LOL.
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Winning isn't everything- its the only thing!
Brian_77630
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Post Date: 10/07/08 03:36
Brilliant.
I've been trying to figure out a way to do something like this. Just not hard enough.
 
Thanks for the great info, Russ and FFS Team.
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QB's: Drew Brees, Peyton Manning
WR's: Andre Johnson, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Doug Baldwin, Nate Burleson
RB's: Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Isaac Redman
TE: Jermicheal Finley, Jacob Tamme
DST: NYG
K: Didn't draft one.
TejasDMT_79820
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Post Date: 10/07/08 16:56
Russ,  Any way you could start extrapolating this out so we can start figuring out better players to pick up in trades?
 
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