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Topic: 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy and Advice
 Russ Bliss_108
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Post Date: 08/20/10 12:16
I wrote a piece of fantasy football advice on draft strategies last year and it was very popular so here's an update to it for 2010 based on observations of the fantasy drafts I've taken part in or tracked this year.


This advice assumes a standard league (10-12 teams; 16 round draft; starting 1 QB, 2-3 RBs, 2-3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 Defense/Special teams; standard 1 point for every 10 rushing or receiving yards; 6 points for every rushing or receiving TD; 1 point for every 20-25 passing yards; 4-6 points for every passing TD; point per reception optional).



General rules of thumb:



*-Dont draft a backup Kicker or Defense unless your league rules force you to. Only draft a second TE if you're getting that second TE after round 12 and he is one the top 18 TE's. If he's not one of the top 18, don't draft a second TE at all.
*-If you want one of the top 3 QB's (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers) you'll have to snag him before round 3. These guys are not lasting past the first pick of the 3rd round in most every draft.
*-If you don't get one of the top 3 QB's, wait until round 4 to consider taking a QB.
*-Youll want to have 1 QB, 3 RBs, and 2 WRs by the end of round 6.
*-Because of the depth at the position in 2010, round 7 is the earliest to be looking to draft a TE. In round 7, if one of the top 6 TEs are still available take the TE in round 7.
*-By the end of round 7 youll want to have either a 4th RB, a 3rd WR or a starting TE.
*-Kickers should not be taken before the last 3 rounds.
*-Defenses should not be taken before the last 5 rounds.
*-Be sure your backup QBs bye week is different from your starting QB.
*-If at all possible, make sure your TE, Kicker, and Defense all have different bye weeks. This ensures that youll only have to drop one player from your roster to cover the bye in any given week and after the first bye week has passed from one of these positions, you can simply drop the bye week replacement. For example your TE has bye week 5, Kicker bye week 7, Defense bye week 8; drop a backup WR or RB to get a TE to cover bye week 5, then drop that replacement TE for a bye week replacement at K week 7; and then drop the replacement kicker to pick up a bye week filler Defense. After all 3 positions have had their bye week, drop the replacement and get a free agent for one of your other positions.


Specifics round by round:


Round 1:
*-If you pick in the top 5 picks, take a RB. If you pick 6th, Andre Johnson is likely the best pick (although Michael Turner has been selected here sometimes in non-ppr formats). If you pick from 7-end of round, take one of the top 7 RBs if available or one of the top 5 WRs.



Round 2:
*-If you got a RB in round 1 you probably should take a WR or one of the top 3 QB's here.
*-If you got a WR in rd 1, you should probably take a RB or one of the top 3 QB's.

Exceptions to this:
*-If any of the top 6 WRs are still available, take a WR regardless of whether you took a RB or WR in round 1.
*-If all of the top 6 WRs are gone, and the top 3 QB's are gone, take a RB.



Round 3:
*-If you have 2 RBs from rounds 1 and 2, and any of the top 3 QB's are available, take the QB. If they are all gone, take a WR.
*-If you took 2 WRs in rounds 1 and 2, and any of the top 3 QB's are available, take the QB. If they are all gone, take a RB.
*-If you took 1 RB and 1 WR in rounds 1 and 2, Take one of top 3 QBs. If none are available, take a RB.
*-If you took a RB in rd 1 and a QB in rd 2, take one of the WRs ranked 1-13. If none of the WRs ranked 1-13 are available, take a RB.
*-If you took a WR in rd 1 and a QB in round 2, take one of RB's ranked 1-13. If they are all gone, take one of WR's ranked 1-13. If they are all gone, take a RB.


This way by the end of round 3 your team will either have:
1 QB, 1 RB, and 1 WR
1 QB, 2 RBs
2 RBs, 1 WR
1 RB, 2 WRs
1 QB, 2 WR's

Round 4:
*-If you have none or only1 RB on your team thru the first 3 rounds, take a RB no matter what.
*-If you have 2 RBs and 1 QB, take a WR ranked 1-16, if none are available, take a RB
*-If you have 2 RBs and 1 WR take one of QBs ranked 1-7. If none of those QBs are available, take one of WRs ranked 1-16. If QBs 1-7 and WRs 1-16 are all gone, take a RB.


Round 5:
*-If you have 3 RBs and 1 WR, take one of the top 7 QBs. If they are all gone, take a WR.
*-If you have 3 RBs and 1 QB, take a WR no matter what.
*-If you have 1 QB, 2 RBs, and 1 WR, take a WR ranked 1-16. If none are available, take a RB.
*-If you have 2 RBs and 2 WRs, take a QB ranked 1-7. If none of these are available, take a RB ranked 1-23. If none of those are available, take a WR.
*-If you only have 1 RB, take another RB no matter what.


Round 6:
*-If you havent taken a QB yet, take a QB no matter what.
*-If you have 1 QB, 2 RBs, and 2 WRs, take a RB no matter what.
*-If you have 1 QB, 3 RBs, and 1 WR, take a WR no matter what.


This ensures you have 1 QB, 3 RBs, and 2 WRs thru the first 6 rounds.


Round 7:
*-If any of the top 6 TE's are still available, take a TE. If they are gone, take a WR.


Round 8:
*-If you didn't get a TE in round 7, take a TE.
*-If you took a TE in round 7, take a WR.


Rounds 9, 10, and 11:
*-Draft depth at RB and WR or grab your backup QB. However you shouldnt draft more than 2 QBs total for your roster unless your starter is an injury risk.


By the end of round 11 your roster should look like either:
2 QB's, 4 RB's, 4 WR's, and 1 TE
1 QB, 5 RB's, 4 WR's, and 1 TE


Round 12:
*-If you didnt get a backup QB in rounds 9, 10, or 11, take your backup QB here.
*-If you like your depth and none of the available players really catch your eye, consider any of Defenses ranked 1-8.
*-If you really like a player available thats not a defense or the top 8 Defenses are gone, continue filling out your bench RB's and WR's.


Round 13:
*-If you didnt take a defense in rd 12, take your Defense now.
*-If you took a defense in rd 12, continue filling out your bench with either handcuff RB, sleeper RB/WR or backup TE if one of the top 18 TE's is still available.


Round 14:
*-Consider one of the top 5 kickers if available or fill out more depth with handcuff RB, or sleeper RB/WR or second TE (if you already have a second TE, don't draft any more at the position).


Round 15:
*-If you didnt take your K in rd 14, take one here. Most every team will be taking their Kicker in the last round anyway so you should still be able to get a good sleeper RB/WR, second TE, or handcuff RB.


Round 16:
*-Handcuff RB, sleeper RB/WR, second TE, or handcuff QB.


A good 16 round draft should leave your team looking like:


2-3 QBs
5-7 RBs
4-6 WRs
1-2 TE's
1 K
1 D
----
On any given Sunday any fantasy team can beat another, only to still lose Monday night.
 JD_9469
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Post Date: 08/20/10 14:16
Russel 108
The only reason I purchased FFS this year was to get this strategy again. I used it last year, made the draft so easy for me and I won my league that we have on CBS Sportsline and $2300+
Thank you re-posting, I have been going crazy trying to find my printed copy from last year
THANK YOU
 Russ Bliss_108
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Post Date: 08/20/10 14:24
NICE! Glad we could help and hope we can make you a repeat winner.

You can always search the archive of my blog by clicking on the link that says "view all topics" next to it on the main forum page.

Here's the 2009 fantasy football draft strategy article to make it easy for those who wish to compare what the differences between the 2009 version and the 2010 version are.
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On any given Sunday any fantasy team can beat another, only to still lose Monday night.
Edgar_119694
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Post Date: 08/20/10 15:47
WOW, this is great. This is my first season with FFS and so far im very impressed. This strategy is going to help me out alot. Last season i placed 4 in my league with a horrible strategy on draft day. Should i try and follow this strategy to the T? Sometimes you see owners picking up QB/DEF early and i begin toget impatient and end up drafting a QB or whatever every one else are drafting (i guess im a follower). Can you give me a little advise.
 Russ Bliss_108
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Post Date: 08/21/10 06:23
Don't get caught up in runs on a position. Usually when they happen, it means that a player at another position is slipping thru the cracks and makes the better pick.

You can follow this to the letter, but I always try to be flexible and be ready to change things up if neccessary as every draft is unique. But in the average type of league, this is a good baseline strategy to follow.

I recommend checking out the fantasy football draft strategy article on Tiering and Value Based Drafting I wrote a few years ago. The names used for examples are dated, but the concepts and principals of both systems stay the same year to year.
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On any given Sunday any fantasy team can beat another, only to still lose Monday night.
Asatur_120625
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Post Date: 08/21/10 09:33
Im new here and just wondering , i have a draft upcoming and where do i find the cheat sheets or best draft choices?
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 Niner Flower Power_6
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Post Date: 08/21/10 09:55
Welcome. when you run your draft analyzer, at the top in orange links you will see your personal tier rankings by position personalized to your scoring system. Best tool on draft day!
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Winning isn't everything- its the only thing!
Ryan_52490
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Post Date: 08/22/10 01:16
Russ, isn't this the same exact post that you posted last year, or is it a little bit different?
 tim_1635
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Post Date: 08/22/10 09:29
Just got back from vacation, first draft is today and I was hoping you had posted your draft strategy. work great last year. Thanks again Russ!
 Russ Bliss_108
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Post Date: 08/22/10 11:46
Ryan, it's slightly different from last year. Every year is going to be different as sometimes I see the cutoff at WR15, sometimes 18, etc. Use the link I provided in one of the above replies to see last years. There are many similarities like not taking a kicker of defense until late or not taking a backup at those positions as that piece of advice is going to stay the same from year to year.
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On any given Sunday any fantasy team can beat another, only to still lose Monday night.
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