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Topic: Is It a Sprint?
Cody_100138
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Joined: August 09
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Post Date: 09/12/11 08:26
I'm just about to finish up my fantasy baseball season with my first playoff matchup starting today.  This is only my second season playing fantasy baseball and nearing the end it has me thinking about a popular fantasy football mantra.  "It's not a sprint, it's a marathon". 
 
Ok, so it's not just fantasy football, this is a popular phrase across several venues, but does it really apply here?  My baseball team has a total of 6,137 at bats and 1,238 innings pitched.  These stats have come over the past 23 weeks and include 17 total starters with 10 batters playing approximately 6 games per week.  That is a marathon.
 
In fantasy football we generally have 13 - 14 weeks to make the playoffs.  Those weeks are commonly made up of 9-10 starters that each play one game per week.  This doesn't give you a lot of time to wait for stats to regress towards a mean.  In baseball you can hold a guy that has a 20 game slump.  In football that guy's season is over.
 
Now I'm not saying that you drop Chris Johnson because he had one bad game.  What I'm saying is that you can pick up a player that had a big game, or drop that popular sleeper that flopped after a couple games.  Roster slots are very valuable in fantasy football and you don't have a lot of time to perfect it given so few games.  I probably use the waiver wire more than most, but that's because I know that time runs out quicker than we think in the NFL.
 
This also means that it might not be a bad idea to sit a "stud" that had a tough first week and has a rough matchup next week.  For example, Shonn Green didn't look good at all last night and has a Jags defense upcoming that limited CJ2K.  Starting him simply because you drafted him a few rounds prior to Ben Tate, Mike Tolbert or Tim Hightower might not necessarily be the best plan.
 
So, maybe fantasy football is more of a sprint than we think.  It's certainly one of the shorter races in fantasy sports.
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- Fantasy Football Ninja
frank_39623
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Joined: August 07
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Post Date: 09/12/11 10:26
very valid points cody. especially since it's becoming harder and harder to predict player performance. so many committee situations, so many out of no where rookies. in the past the running back was the staple of the fantacy team. now days seems QB, kicker and defense can decide the difference between a win or a loss.  but i may just be bitter about this weeks loss, since ALL my starters flopped, except my defense!
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QB: 3pt td, -1 pt int, no yardage, 3pts at 300yrd
RB: 6pt td, no yardage, 3pts at 100yrd
WR: 6pt td, no yardage, 3pts at 120yrd
TE: 6pt td, no yardage, 3pts at 80 yrd
K: 3pt, +3pt at 50 Yrd, +1 pt each extra yrd. (stupid rule!)
ALL TDs: double if 50 yrd or longer.
extra 5 pt bonus every 50 yrd after intial yardage bonus.

_________________________________________________

QB: m.sanchez, j.flacco, hasselbeck
RB: r.mendenhall, i.redman, d.mcfadden, c.benson
WR: r.white, m.wallace, b.marshall, r.meachem, decker
TE: o.daniels, j.cook
K: s.gostkowski, n.novak
DEF: eagles, saints
 Throwball Heroes_118522
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Post Date: 09/12/11 12:15
I do believe the saying, "it's not a sprint, it's a marathon" first
fantasy football, but not the same way it does for fantasy baseball. I
spent one grueling year playing fantasy baseball and there was no way I
could keep up with the rigors of managing a single team. At the time I
enjoyed the sport and was into it, but even then it was truly a
challenge.
Yeah I do believe that fantasy football is a marathon
and not a sprint. I think there are general rules or philosophies that
fantasy owners can follow, but depending on league rules you might see
reason to diverge from the norm. I have subscribed to what Russ termed,
"start your studs." Why? Dunno, maybe after all these years I know no
better, but at the start of every season, offensive players seem to have
a leg up on their defensive counterparts.
Case in point the
Thursday night shoot out that saw 70+ points and 700+ yards of offense
between the Saints and Packers. Those were supposed to be two of the
best defenses in the league. Now, this might be the exception and the
not standard. But we can look at Sunday night's game as well. The Jets,
another top notch defense and Dallas managed to put up 24 points against
them.
So while some big named players might have tanked in Week 1
is that reason not to start them in Week 2? It depends. Chris Johnson
is cited as an example, but is it a bad example? He was a hold out,
wanted more money and would not even report to camp. As a fantasy owner
we knew (or should have known) he would be behind in terms of being game
ready. Even though he is a stud and has a proven track record could
your foresee his 9-24 yard day? Nope. Could you sit him? I don't believe
you could.
The case for any player to be started or not can only
be based off the information you have at the time of kick off. You take
into consideration what the player did (or didn't do, like Shonn
Greene) last year, you read stories and gather information on how the
looked in training camp and preseason game (to some degree) and then you
make your selections for your starting line up.
Early in the
season I think the match ups might be a bit overrated. Again, I cite my
two examples above, where top defenses gave up the farm. Still, match
ups play a role as the season rolls on and you are looking to get the
most value from all your players. Early in the season (Weeks 1-4) I
believe you roll the studs and hope for the best.
As for my
thoughts on the waiver wire. In my league it's $10 a move. I won't make
unnecessary moves to increase what I owe. After some 15 months here on
FFS, my attitudes towards the wire has changed and enjoy speculating on
players for future weeks, but again I won't spend unnecessarily.
I
also subscribe to the thought that you can build a team from the draft
and not need to use the wire as a crutch or aid during the season. That
takes a lot of luck though in hopes you have no injuries and the players
you drafted perform and players you speculated on come through.

Frank makes a good point too. The NFL is changing, teams are changing. Gone are the days where fantasy owners can rely on an individual player. We see more RBBC in the NFL than we have seen any year previous. Players are bigger, stronger faster and injuries seems to increase every year. Serious injuries too. There is no science to player prediction. Some times we are right, some times we are wrong. In the end it's all about having fun.
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Stephen
http://www.the6thfloor.com/category/fantasy-football-2/

"Bringing confusion and contradiction to YOUR post!"
"ISIYBITSI" -Russ Bliss
Cody_100138
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Post Date: 09/12/11 12:27
The problem w/ waiting 4 weeks before making tweeks is that a quarter of your season is already gone.  I don't touch 1st or 2nd rounders outside of injury but everyone else is fair game for sitting IMO.  Moving quick is vital in Fantasy Football IMO due to such a shorter season.
 
Charging for wire moves is a little uncommon and not the standard for what most folks play by.  I generally give advice for the standard leagues on here.  The wire is not a crutch IMO, it's part of the game for most folks.  Like you said player projection is no science, so why limit yourself to knowing everything prior to the first regular season snap?  I love the draft, it's my favorite part season, but it's only one part.
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- Fantasy Football Ninja
 Throwball Heroes_118522
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Post Date: 09/12/11 12:47
Uncommon for early moves? Did you see all the owners wanting to make moves before week 1? I find that odd. It seems to be more the norm than the exception. In the league I manage. I don't allow any moves, I don't even over the wire until after Week 1. This means you drafted poorly in my opinion.

The wire is a strategy, unfortunately more often than not it is used and abused, but done so in the rules of game (again citing from MY league). We continually make changes to the wire so owners don't go hog wild and blow their wad (one owner contributed $250 last year @ $10 a move) on the wire. I feel the true test is being able to draft full roster of players and win a championship. I know, I have done it. Okay, once, but still I did with with only 2 wire moves that netted minimal points.

But in leagues where there is no transaction fee owners, myself included will cycle players in and out of open roster spots looking for the next player to hit it big. I still believe this devalues the draft to some degree, but is the "accepted" norm in many leagues. Maybe it's just something I need to get over personally. I dunno.
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Stephen
http://www.the6thfloor.com/category/fantasy-football-2/

"Bringing confusion and contradiction to YOUR post!"
"ISIYBITSI" -Russ Bliss
Cody_100138
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Post Date: 09/12/11 12:54
I said that charging for moves is not common.  Not that making moves is uncommon.
 
I respect that you feel drafting is the true test, but I feel that flexibility and constant player analysis during the season is the true test.  Difference of opinion, but calling it a crutch and devaluing folks that make moves isn't correct IMO.
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- Fantasy Football Ninja
 Throwball Heroes_118522
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Post Date: 09/12/11 13:01
Difference of opinion is a wonderful thing. I believe my opinions have changed since I have discussed fantasy football with guys like you and other on the forums, Cody. I used to be dead set against a waiver wire, but that was because for 20+ years we never used one, injuries were something that were dealt with in the draft and through the use of supplemental picks through the season (4 total).

I don't want to make it sound like I am trying to devalue anyone for how they manage their team. What they feel they need to is up to them. If the wire is part of the game play, then by all means use it. The example I used from last year was our total points winner had 2 players he drafted and 8 wire picks in his final line up. That tells me he drafted poorly. Looking over his draft, he didn't draft well, so some in my league said he bought his championship via the wire. He bought Vick. He bought Hillis. He bought 6 other players he ended up using a majority of the season. That is how this owner operates though. But in the end he played within the rules, you can't fault anyone for that.
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Stephen
http://www.the6thfloor.com/category/fantasy-football-2/

"Bringing confusion and contradiction to YOUR post!"
"ISIYBITSI" -Russ Bliss
Cody_100138
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Post Date: 09/12/11 13:09
But those players were available to everyone weren't they?  Maybe others drafted poorly for not having those guys? 
 
Guys like that make my point, you have to be quick to move in fantasy football because things change so quickly.  In baseball you can miss out on 5 guys just to get the 6th because the season is long and several players have ups and downs.  In the NFL there isn't enough time for the peaks and valleys.  If you set a slow and steady pace(marathon) you'll find the sprinter at the finish line when you finally arrive.  For me the draft is only the starting line.
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- Fantasy Football Ninja
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