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Topic: 2011 Season Game Predictions Recap
 Russ Bliss_108
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Joined: September 04
Total Posts: 19878
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Post Date: 01/04/12 15:33
Well, week 17 didn't go as well as I hoped. I took a few fliers in hopes of catching a couple of week 17 upsets, but the Saints played their guys way longer than I expected whereas Carolina looked like they were just ready for the season to end. Detroit tried like heck, but couldn't outduel Matt Flynn and the Packers. Too much bickering amongst the Jets cost them against Miami. Seattle succumbed to the power of the Cardinals ability to win in overtime. Tim Tebow couldn't even be moderately bad against the Chiefs, instead choosing to be infinitely bad. Minnesota played with little heart against the Josh McCown led Bears.
 
So it goes.
 
I finished week 17 going a pitiful 8-8 in the game predictions which has me finishing the 2011 season with a final tally of 167-89 (65%). That's 13 games short of the goal of 180 (and a 70% hit total). But there's always next year and another chance to get to the mark. At the very least I take some little solace in knowing that I improved 14 games over my pitiful showing in 2010.
 
I also blew my final lock of the week. In the hopes of knocking the Denver Broncos out f the playoffs, I took them this past week and despite the fact the Broncos lost, the Raiders did too and that means Denver goes to the playoffs anyway. Too bad I lost on both accounts there. That made my Survivor Pool locks record for the season 14-3. Again, better than last season (12-5) but still below what I expect from myself on a given year. In survivor pools I usually get none or 1 wrong, and to have 3 is still unacceptable.
 
Again, there's always next year.
 
I also have to say Thanks to Stephen (Throwball Heroes) for keeping a running tally of those who chose to make their own selections in these blog threads and congratulations to him for having the highest amount of games picked correctly out of everyone tracked. Stephen went 176-80. Congrats also to Erick, Nic, and Alan for also posting more wins than me on the season. Hopefully everyone is up to doing it again next season.
 
I also went back and looked at our Game Predictor based off the probability projections for the players. Our Game Predictor software came in at 168-88 for the season. What was interesting to note is that in the first 9 weeks, it went 81-49 in choosing the correct winner (62.3%), but in the last 8 weeks it went 87-39 (69%). It got better as the season went along. Conversely, I went 84-45 in the first 9 weeks and 82-44 in the last 8. I got worse as the season went along.
 
Little things like that always catch my eye.
 
But again, there's always next season, and there's always room for improvement. I hope to do better and hope the software fares better as well. And coming up here later in the week I'll have my weekly playoff predictions too.
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On any given Sunday any fantasy team can beat another, only to still lose Monday night.
 Throwball Heroes_118522
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Membership: Starter
Joined: June 10
Total Posts: 14936
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Post Date: 01/04/12 18:59
Interesting numbers Russ. Thanks for providing the information about the Game Predictor. Lots of fun picking against others and seeing how we do. I'll be around next season to match wits with those who want to get involved!
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Stephen
http://www.the6thfloor.com/category/fantasy-football-2/

"Bringing confusion and contradiction to YOUR post!"
"ISIYBITSI" -Russ Bliss
Erick_44330
Membership: Retired
Joined: September 07
Total Posts: 1951
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Post Date: 01/04/12 20:58
I joined in late last year when Russ and Lucas were making there picks. Was glad to get a chance to do this for the whole year.
 
I was thinking of maybe setting up a pick'em for us here at FFS on yahoo next year. That way Stephen doesn't have to worry about trying to keep up with everyones picks. Yahoo will do it.
Just a thought. Let me know if you all are interested. All it takes is a free yahoo id.
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Keeper League, PPR, ESPN Standard Scoring
Start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1FLX(RB,WR), 1TE, 1K, 1D/ST
QB's = M. Ryan, N. Foles
RB's = D. Murray, D. Martin, Z. Stacy, S. Vereen
WR's = W. Welker, V. Jackson, A. Jeffery, R. Cobb, J. Maclin
TE's = J. Reed, C. Clay
D/ST = Chiefs, Bengals
K = M. Crosby
 Throwball Heroes_118522
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Joined: June 10
Total Posts: 14936
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Post Date: 01/05/12 12:58
Mistake free record keeping, huh? LOL...
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Stephen
http://www.the6thfloor.com/category/fantasy-football-2/

"Bringing confusion and contradiction to YOUR post!"
"ISIYBITSI" -Russ Bliss
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