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Topic: Super Bowl 46 Prediction
Russ Bliss_108
Membership: Retired
Joined: September 04
Total Posts: 19878
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Post Date: 02/04/12 12:32
Guess I've put it off long enough. With the big game tomorrow, it's time to pick a side and make a prediction.
Let me start with saying that this is as hard a Super Bowl to predict as I can remember. No outcome would surprise me. It's kind of funny that we have a Super Bowl that features a team that very few thought could be here (the Giants) and another that has played very suspect defense most weeks throughout the season.
The Giants were hardly world beaters in the regular season. They barely made the playoffs. If the NFL were run like college football, they probably wouldn't have even been a BCS bowl team choice. Using the BCS criteria, the matchup probably would have been Green Bay vs. Baltimore or New England. But a playoffs system makes the Championship decided by play on the field rather than biased polls and computers and so the Giants were given a chance to redeem themselves for regular season losses to both the Packers and 49ers prove they could beat both in elimination games. And they did.
Just another reason why the college football format is screwed up and needs a playoff system if the goal is to determine a true national champion. But that's a topic for another time and I digress.
Both teams come in with great play from their QB's. Tom Brady is amongst the current elite QB's while Eli Manning has made (pardon the pun) giant strides during the regular season and appears poised on the precipice of joining the elite ranks.  A second Super Bowl title would probably put him in that category. Both are great leaders and on field generals.
At RB, the popular belief is that the Giants have the advantage, but in the regular season, the Giants ran for the fewest rushing yards of any team in the entire league while the Patriots ranked 20th. But when it came to scoring on the ground, only 2 teams had more rushing TD's than the Patriots while only 5 teams had more than the Giants. Both teams are effective rushing the ball, especially near the goal line. The Patriots are likely to use a rotation between BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley, with some Danny Woodhead sprinkled in. The Giants will focus on getting Ahmad Bradshaw the ball most with Brandon Jacobs also getting some time in what is likely to be close to a 66/34 split.
At WR, the Giants boast the higher quality unit with Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham, but the Patriots have Wes Welker and Deion Branch, both of whom are proven capable of putting up big numbers any game. And while Chad Ochocinco has been a monumental bust for the Patriots, there's just something about him being on this stage that screams he isn't going to just be non-existent or a blip in the box score. I know Chad has done nothing to merit talk, but is he really going to just ride the coattails of others to finally be in a Super Bowl and not do anything to help? That just doesn't sound like Chad. However, fact is this season, that has been Chad. And while Julian Edelman is getting more recognition for what he does as a defensive back, he also has proven to be effective as a WR. But the Giants have the advantage here.
That's not the case at TE though. While Jake Ballard has been a lot better than expected and Travis Beckum pretty good when healthy, they don't compare to Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Even with an ankle injury, Gronkowski is still likely to be a dominant force. If the Giants assume he isn't worth focusing on, he'll burn them, and if they do decide to put extra attention on him it frees up other players. Either way, he makes an impact. Aaron Hernandez is almost as dangerous as Gronkowski and is fully capable of posting huge numbers. The Patriots have figured out that their best weapons in their passing game are at the TE position and reworked their offense to feature them.
Both defenses have been performing much better of late. The Patriots throughout the season have been ranked low because of the amount of yards they have allowed, but while they have allowed plenty of yards, they have been very good at preventing those yards into translating into points. The Giants of late have been particularly stingy as they have gotten progressively healthier.
It's going to be a very intriguing Super Bowl with these two seemingly evenly matched teams. I am personally torn as I am beginning to think Eli Manning is possible to ascend to the role of the "Patriots Killer" with a win Sunday. It would be kind of apropos that he could be the bane of New England considering how Eli's brother, Peyton, had so many problems with the Patriots over the years. And while I like this idea, I did take the Patriots to win it all before the season started. If you remember, I predicted a Super Bowl 46 matchup of Patriots/Falcons and said this would the year Tom Brady would bring back the trophy to New England. Ultimately, I really, really, like being right.
Our Power Analyzer has predicted a final score of NY Giants 27, New England Patriots 23. But I think the exact opposite. My official Super Bowl 46 Prediction:
New England 27, NY Giants 23.
On any given Sunday any fantasy team can beat another, only to still lose Monday night.
James The Mod_4852
Membership: Retired
Joined: August 05
Total Posts: 8641
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Post Date: 02/04/12 13:11
The Giants give up the 5th most fantasy points to TE's. I think Gronkowsi and Hernandez have big games.
I like the Patriots 38 to 34 over the Giants.

FFS Moderator
Membership: Retired
Joined: September 07
Total Posts: 1951
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Post Date: 02/04/12 14:01
I say Ole Tom gets #4.
Keeper League, PPR, ESPN Standard Scoring
Start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1FLX(RB,WR), 1TE, 1K, 1D/ST
QB's = M. Ryan, N. Foles
RB's = D. Murray, D. Martin, Z. Stacy, S. Vereen
WR's = W. Welker, V. Jackson, A. Jeffery, R. Cobb, J. Maclin
TE's = J. Reed, C. Clay
D/ST = Chiefs, Bengals
K = M. Crosby
Membership: Bench Warmer
Joined: August 10
Total Posts: 2786
Post Date: 02/05/12 22:25
Being a Yankees fan I was rooting for the Giants to beat the Patriots but I felt the Patriots would find a way to win and that the lose in 2007 that ended their perfect season would be the ultimate motivating factor for them.  Also with the passing of Myra Kraft to me the Patriots winning would have been a nice way for the Patriots to end the season.  Sometimes you look for signs that point to why one team will winner over another and then everything goes out the window with all the analysis.

Congrats to the Giants....
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