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Topic: Adrian Peterson: Where Does he Rank in 2012?
 Russ Bliss_108
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Post Date: 06/05/12 14:02
There are fewer players whom fantasy football enthusiasts will be keeping a closer eye on this year than Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. One of the top 3 picks in most fantasy football drafts the last few seasons, Peterson goes into the 2012 season with questions about how healthy he is, and whether he'll even be ready for the start of the regular season.
 
Peterson suffered a torn ACL in late December last year. Typically, this is a 9 month minimum recovery injury. I can only remember one significant offensive player who actually played in that time frame, and that was Wes Welker's amazing recovery from the same injury in 2010. But he's the only one I can remember who came back to play that quickly. Everyone else I think of took longer. 
 
With that in mind, we all just assumed that Peterson was going to start the 2012 season on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list and miss at least the first 6 games of the season. It made Toby Gerhart's 2012 fantasy football projections to make him a borderline RB2 in most minds. But the reports all off-season have been leaning towards the positive for Peterson having a chance to be able to suit up week one. That leaves fantasy players in limbo on where to rank both Peterson and Gerhart on their 2012 cheat sheets. 
 
A healthy Peterson who bucks the odds and is ready for week 1 ascends to top 10 fantasy RB status. He could even end up ranking higher, but he really can't be expected to be fully 100% ready and recovered by then and able to be exactly as good as he was in so short a time. Even Wes Welker in 2010 had a down statistical year in 2010 with the fewest receptions, yards, and yards per catch average of any season he's had since joining the New England Patriots. It's really not hard to envision Peterson, even if he is able to play week 1, being less effective than he has been in recent seasons. 
 
A healthy Peterson also would push Toby Gerhart's value down. Unless Peterson opens the season on the PUP list, Gerhart is nothing more than a mid-round flier by the daring, or later round handcuff to Peterson. Conversely, if Peterson does end up on the PUP list, or suffers any major setback in his recovery, Gerhart will shoot up fantasy football running back rankings and be a quality RB2/3. 
 
But we simply won't know about Peterson until the Vikings training camp starts up and gets going. Until that time, it's a guessing game. And here's my guess:
 
I think Peterson will be able to play in week 1, but I do not expect him to be the same elite stud RB he's been in recent years. I expect he'll share a lot more time initially early in the season with Gerhart, at least until the Vikings feel secure that the knee will hold up under a regular load for a feature RB. I expect he'll be spelled more often on passing downs by Gerhart, thusly increasing Gerhart's value in PPR fantasy leagues. Assuming that Peterson suffers no setbacks or re-injures the knee, I expect him to be a top 15 RB by the end of the 2012 season. But he'll be hard pressed to finish top 10, and taking him anywhere before the 25th pick of any draft is something I won't be doing. Not at least until I see him go thru a preseason game and look like his pre-injury self.


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 Throwball Heroes_118522
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Post Date: 06/06/12 07:05
Here are some numbers on players returning to the NFL after ACL surgery:
Kevin Smith, Lions (2009 - age 23)
2009 projected: 50 receptions, 1,430 scrimmage yards, six TDs
2010 actual: 11 receptions, 256 scrimmage yards, 0 TDs

Deuce McAllister, Saints (2007 - age 29)
2007 projected: 21 receptions, 571 scrimmage yards, 0 TDs
2008 actual: 18 receptions, 546 scrimmage yards, six TDs

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins (2007 - age 26)
2007 projected: 89 receptions, 2,265 scrimmage yards, 11 TDs
2008 actual: 33 receptions, 1,170 scrimmage yards, 10 TDs

Deuce McAllister, Saints (2005 - age 27)
2005 projected: 54 receptions, 1,446 scrimmage yards, nine TDs
2006 actual: 30 receptions, 1,255 scrimmage yards, 10 TDs

Jamal Lewis, Ravens (2001 - age 21)
2000 actual: 27 receptions, 1,660 scrimmage yards, six TDs
2002 actual: 47 receptions, 1,762 scrimmage yards, seven TDs

Edgerrin James, Colts (2001 - age 23)
2001 projected: 64 receptions, 2,280 scrimmage yards, eight TDs
2002 actual: 61 receptions, 1,343 scrimmage yards, three TDs

Terrell Davis, Broncos (1999 - age 27)
1999 projected: 12 receptions, 372 scrimmage yards, 0 TDs
2000 actual: Two receptions, 286 scrimmage yards, two TDs

Jamal Anderson, Falcons (1999 - age 27)
1999 projected: 16 receptions, 744 scrimmage yards, 0 TDs
2000 actual: 42 receptions, 1,406 scrimmage yards, six TDs

Source NFL.com
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Stephen
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 Thomas _5045
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Post Date: 06/08/12 14:45
I want no part of Peterson this season and will be surprised if he plays at all the first month of the season. That's just asking too much for a RB coming back from that type of injury.The Vikings ought to play it smart and start him on the pup list and make sure the knee will hold up the first 6 weeks.

And unless he is excelling in training camp, I also would be wary of taking Jamaal Charles. He's coming back from a knee injury too. Plus the addition of Peyton Hillis is likely going to cut into a lot of the rushing duties and some of the passing down duties as well since Hillis is a good receiver out of the backfield too.
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 Throwball Heroes_118522
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Post Date: 06/13/12 10:01
Doing drills in OTA and training camps are one thing. Doing it in a game situation when there are players tackling you is another. He is a big risk player this year. The same goes for Charles in KC. These injuries are not easy to overcome and the track record for returning on par to where they were producing is against them.
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 James The Mod_4852
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Post Date: 06/18/12 17:14
Yep. I think Peyton Hillis will get a lot of carries in the 1st hallf of the season. Charles still has a way to go and will gradually get there.
 
I call this the pre-camp lying that goes on in the NFL. I remember last season when Chris Johnson said he was staying in shape during the lockout. Fast forward a year later and he finally admitted he was never in shape during the lock-out.
 
James
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 Russ Bliss_108
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Post Date: 06/22/12 11:42
It sounds like Peterson's rehab is coming along much faster than expected. I know that every year we have a lot of "coach-speak" to get thru to find the truth, but if AP can actually be able to play in a preseason game and show he can take a hit or two, it will be hard to ignore him in fantasy drafts.

Same with Charles. But I have a hard time believing the Chiefs brought in Peyton Hillis to just turn back to Charles as the feature RB. We had concerns about Charles and his ability to withstand a feature RB's load, and sure enough, he didn't last long in 2011. They will be a committee.
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 Throwball Heroes_118522
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Post Date: 06/23/12 05:44
The word most often used by head coaches right now, "OPTIMISTIC."
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 Robert The IDP Guru_9600
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Post Date: 06/26/12 16:28
It seems to me that there have been alot of ACL injuries to stu RB's last year, AP, Jamaal Charles, Rashard Mendenhall just to name a few.
Looks like there will be only a few stud RB's out there, my feelings are after the top 4 are gone, your next 10 to 15 are going to be very similar in points.
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 Throwball Heroes_118522
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Post Date: 06/28/12 09:41
Yea very true, especially this season. While passing on RBs early is a smart move, it could just pay off this year with the talent at the WR position, along with the parity at the RB position, like you said Robert after the top few are drafted.
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 Niner Flower Power_6
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Post Date: 07/01/12 11:27
Totally agree 4 RB's most and with the game changing WR's and QB's top 5 are worth going after early. Do you homework this year on WR's, that's where the money is going to be.
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