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Topic: TE's That Just Missed the Top 10 for 2012
 Russ Bliss_108
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Post Date: 06/08/12 11:04
So I recently went thru our STARTERS Draft Analyzer results on a basic non-ppr scoring system and have compiled the top 10 players based on the fantasy football projections for the TE position. If you haven't checked those out yet, you can click thru the link to see the 2012 top 10 fantasy TE's.
 
It was no surprise that the Saints Jimmy Graham and the Patriots Rob Gronkowski checked in as the elite fantasy TE's for the upcoming season. And really no surprise that Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, and Aaron Hernandez rounded out the top 7. But after those top 7, there's room for debate.
 
Rounding out the top 10 were Tony Gonzalez, Fred Davis, and Greg Olsen. But there are others who possibly deserved to be in the top 10 over these last 3. Dustin Keller and Brent Celek both finished 2011 in the top 10 fantasy football TE's and have potential to repeat. Both Brandon Pettigrew and Jermaine Gresham finished just outside the top 10 last season. Jared Cook had a strong finish to the 2011 season. Owen Daniels has proven capable of putting up quality numbers. And now that Jacob Tamme is in Denver with Peyton Manning, he could have a case. Let's look at each of these players.
 
In the case of Dustin Keller, new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano has promised a renewed emphasis on the rushing attack of the Jets. The acquisition of Tim Tebow and the plays he will take from Mark Sanchez supports that as Sparano ran the Wildcat offense often in Miami and it probably means fewer passing attempts for the Jets in 2012 than in the last couple of seasons. Keller has the skills to be a fantasy TE1, but likely will turn into a top flight fantasy backup TE in 2012.
 
In Philadelphia, Brent Celek rebounded in 2011 after a poor 2010 and finished as the 10th highest scoring fantasy TE. But with reports that one or both of WR's Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson ready to break out this season, it will likely come at the expense of some of those passes that would go to Celek. Celek likely will need to see an increase on the 5 TD's he caught in 2011 to challenge for the top 10 in 2012, and I don't know if he can have enough of them to make up for a likely drop in yardage.
 
Detroit's Brandon Pettigrew could suffer some as it's hard to imagine Matt Stafford repeating his 5,000+ passing yards season in 2012. Add in that Stafford is very much a strong armed bomber preferring to throw downfield while Pettigrew primarily runs underneath routes (witnessed by his 9.4 yards per catch average in 2011), along with the expected development of second year WR Titus Young, and Pettigrew is likely to finish just outside the top 10 again in 2012.
 
While Cincinnati's Jermaine Gresham stands a chance of growing with Andy Dalton, Dalton lacks the big time arm to go downfield like some QB's. Gresham only had 6 games in 2011 with over 50 yards receiving. If A.J. Green takes the next step up after a sensational rookie season, can Gresham realistically improve a lot on the 56 catches for 596 yards he had in 2011? Probably not. He does get a bump up for being a big target for Dalton in the red zone, as his 6 receiving TD's were second most on the team, but like with Celek, counting on a big enough bump up in TD's to make up for the lack of solid yards is hard for me to buy into.
 
Tennessee's Jared Cook has been hyped each of the last 2 seasons as being on the verge of a breakout, but over 1/3 of his total production in 2011 came in 2 of the last 3 games of the season. Was that an indication that the light bulb has finally come on for him? Or was it just another tease fantasy owners will buy into for 2012? For me, he'll need to start strong before I can believe he's ready to compete for the top 10 fantasy TE's in 2012.
 
Houston's Owen Daniels managed to finally stay healthy for more than 11 games in 2011 for the first time in 3 seasons. And while he has upside, and potentially more with Joel Dreessen gone to Denver, he has never had more than 5 TD's in any of his 6 seasons. I think it much more likely Andre Johnson gets to 10 TD's for the first time in his career than Daniels getting to the 6-8 he'd need to be top 10 in 2012. It also hurts him that in the red zone, the Texans are a willing "run first" team with Arian Foster and Ben Tate.
 
Speaking of Joel Dreessen, he is one of the reasons why Denver's Jacob Tamme probably won't crack the top 10 TE's in 2012. Dreessen also joined the Broncos in free agency and the one area Dreessen excelled in at Houston was as a red zone target (he led Houston in receiving TD's in 2011 with 6). I think there's a good chance he could reprise that role for the Broncos in 2012. The Colts connection between Tamme and Peyton Manning will get Tamme a lot of attention by the fantasy community, but even in 2010 when Tamme stepped in for the injured Dallas Clark and got the attention of fantasy players for the last 10 games of that season, Tamme only caught 4 TD's. While his 67 receptions were impressive in that span in 2010, a yards per catch average of only 9.4 showed his limited run after the catch abilities.
 
Fantasy football forecasting is a game of best guesswork each season. And while each of these TE's have a chance to crack the top 10 in 2012 by season's end, their chances are not really better than the 10 who did make it on the STARTERS Draft Analyzer list.
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 Thomas _5045
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Post Date: 06/08/12 14:40
Don't forget about Tony Moeaki! He was poised to improve upon his rookie season before tearing up his knee before the season ever started. He should be fine sometime in the preseason. Kevin Boss's addition was an insurance policy for Moeaki, but if Mo is healthy, he'll surprise this season and probably be undrafted in most leagues.
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 dana_260
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Post Date: 06/10/12 05:59
And if you miss on any of those and decide to wait a awhile for a TE.
I'll be keeping a quiet eye on;
Kellen Davis  CHI -  Has the skill set, Hybird mold - Martz gone - nice sleeper option. 

Rob Housler- Ariz; has recieved many first team reps in OTA's - If Cardinals move into a heavy use of 12 personnel, Housler will have allot of upside especially with Heap's duribilty issue.
 James The Mod_4852
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Post Date: 06/10/12 18:29
Tamme is going to be a PPR beast this year.
 
James
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 James The Mod_4852
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Post Date: 06/12/12 17:09
Dana,
 
I think the Cardinals are going to have to try 21 personnel and use their Rb's to block more to keep Kolb upright. That would give them Fitz and their rookie WR to break some big plays. Kolb is sneaky in the pocket has has running abillity and can be evasive. Just have the Rb's chip the A gap rushers and Kolb can improvise on the outside. 
They need better blocking from that horrible O-line.
 
James
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 dana_260
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Post Date: 06/13/12 06:41
21 Funny -Kolb? You mean Skelton, Cardinals don't want sneaky outside improv. They want stand tall confident in the pocket, quick read and release get the ball out and into the hands of the playmakers   Beanie and Ryan Williams are big question marks in my book until camp is complete. banking on Colledge and Snyder to solidfy the front three, as far as protecting the QB this may come down to Anthony Sherman in the back field with Floyd,Fitz,Heap and Housler that sound like a lot of field to cover for a defense... 
You know what they say; It all looks good on paper!
 James The Mod_4852
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Post Date: 06/13/12 15:55
Skelton is a human totem pole. He can't move. Kolb can run if he has to at least and has more scrambling ability.
 
I like Skelton's arm though. But he needs a good blocking line in front of him to be a success. His delivery is just too slow.
 
Yes, this year I think the Card's success all depends on that O-line. Card's management continues not to address the issue for some strange reason.
 
I have no faith that the Cards will rely on any TE. The have not done so for years. Why change now?
 
James
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 Michael_8256
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Post Date: 06/14/12 08:55
James said it, I believe it, that settles it!
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 Throwball Heroes_118522
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Post Date: 06/15/12 11:32
LOL...a new moniker for Michael. Way to start the year!
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