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Topic: 5 Preseason Predictions
Dan Grogan_164153
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Post Date: 08/02/12 10:51

The NFL preseason is great for watching players’ stock rise and fall with each passing week. Keeping up with this is what separates the fantasy winners from the losers. Here are five guys whose values I think will rise as the preseason moves along.

Peyton Manning/QB/DEN

Because of the neck surgeries and working with a new cast of receivers, Manning is a “mystery man” among fantasy owners this season. His current ADP of around the 9th QB drafted and who many think will still be on the board in Round 5 or 6, reflects this uncertainty. However, provided he makes it through the preseason unscathed, I think we’ll see his stock climb. I don’t think he’ll join the top three of Rodgers, Brady and Brees, but I think he’ll leapfrog several others as drafters regain their confidence in him.

Stevan Ridley/RB/NE

The early camp reports on Ridley have been very positive and I think he’ll continue to pull away from the back solidifying the starting job. He really doesn’t have much competition for the starting role. Shane Vereen is more of a change of pace back and Danny Woodhead is a third down guy. As fantasy owners begin to see this, they’ll begin to value him more highly. Ridley’s current ADP value of around the 36th ranked RB who will last into the 8th round. Look for this to change in the coming weeks.

Isaac Redman/RB/PIT

Make no mistake, Redman is regarded as a potential sleeper by many fantasy owners. But as it becomes more apparent that Rashard Mendenhall needs much more recovery time from his ACL surgery - which was in January of this year - Redman’s stock will drift higher. If the term “sleeper” implies that Redman will be relatively unknown on draft day, forget about it. He’ll get a lot of “fantasy press” during the preseason. He’s currently viewed as an early RB3 pick projected to go in the 6th round.

Doug Martin/RB/TB

Martin’s 21st RB ranking in the recent ADPs is already fairly high, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he moves up the pecking order by the end of camp. People are evaluating him with the prospect that LeGarrette Blount is still in the backfield mix. Blount, however, is fighting for his NFL life. Even in the early part of trainingcampMartin appears to be in the driver’s seat given that he’s truly a multi-dimensional back that not only runs well, but can catch and pass block.

Mike Goodson/RB/OAK

Right now, Goodson is talked about as being a nice handcuff to Darren McFadden and a back that can be had in Rounds 13 or 14. I think his draft status will be on the rise this preseason, however. Given that the Raiders will likely take it very easy on the oft-injured McFadden, Goodson will see a lot of work (i.e. air time) during the preseason. And, although we didn’t see much of him last year while he was inCarolina, you have to go back to the 2010 season to see what he’s capable of.

With injuries to DeAngelo Williams and James Stewart, the Panthers turned to Goodson as their starter in Weeks 9 and 10 of the 2010 season. He responded with 100 yards againstTampaBayand 120 versusBaltimore. Even when Stewart returned in Week 11, Goodson still saw decent action scoring three times over the next three games. Goodson can catch too. He had 40 receptions in a part-time role that year.

A lot of words for a non-starting RB, but I think this analysis is important for those that draft McFadden. The strategy of waiting till the late rounds to take Goodson as insurance pick could backfire.

 Throwball Heroes_118522
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Post Date: 08/02/12 12:17
As a sidenote, I read this week that Taiwan Jones has been seeing quite a few reps with the second team for the Raiders. Not sure that equates to much, but I am all sure we have that nagging feeling we need to draft a HC for McFadden, it will be intersting to see how the backup roll in OAK plays out.



Dan, I do agree about Redman being a sleeper, although anyone prepared for a draft should know the status of Mendy, if not shame on them. I still see Mendy drafted higher than what some ADP have him listed as.



I will also toss Malcolm Floyd in a preseason prediction that if healthy he will put up 1000 yards and 8-10 TDs. He knows the system, as a good relationship with Rivers and currently a round 9 selection (based on ADP). I believe more owners will be focused on the addition of Meachem and Royal to the Chargers.
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 Michael_8256
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Post Date: 08/02/12 13:42
Guess it's time for Dan to get beat up just a little by the Drummaster.  

While there is certainly a degree (but only a degree) of value to be gleened from the preseason...I'll take issue with the "this is what seperated the fantasy winners from the losers" that's an overstatement...IMO.

Maybe years ago that was true but in todays' NFL its a whole lotta games of starters playing EXTERMELY limated versus vanilla defense, vanilla offense and a whole lot of future AFL and Candian Football players trying to make a squad, while the starters are not trying to get hurt!

Can you kinda see how Peyton's coming along...yes, or how Mendy's knee is...OK I'll give you that, but I put precious little stock in what I see and moreover what I read.

Why do you think the NFLPA pushed so hard to drop two pre-season games during the last CBA...the players don't like, don't want it and they play like it on the field. You don't have to look any further than last years Pro Bowl to see how the players feel about extra non-counting games!

The owners want it for the reveune and it does help the coaches make cut down decsions...make me win or loss a fanatsy football season...well...we'll just have to agree to disagree.

I probably  just demotrated the fastest way to lose Moderator status...go out and bust on the new guy!
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 James The Mod_4852
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Post Date: 08/02/12 18:49
I don't watch pre-season games but I check the box scores of each game afterwards to look for patterns in the statistics. We were one of the very few sites who noticed the trend to pick up Hillis early due to the injury concerns of Hardesty and sure enough Hillis became the clear cut starter in Cleveland a couople of years ago when he had his monster season.

Last summer, I reported very early that Peyton Manning was having major neck issues due to a statement made by his father Archie, very few people even believed this story on this message board.

You don't have to watch pre-season games, but the need to keep up on trends and injuries is very important to make sure you don't draft that DUD and put him on your roster.

James
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 Throwball Heroes_118522
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Post Date: 08/03/12 05:34
Michael? Draft a dud? Never! LOL. I do agree James, I put little into preseason games as well. I will look at stats as well, as you said but even with that there are times we draft a player on a whim or the fact he had a few good quarters of football in the preseason, only to be burned later in the season.
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Stephen
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 DaBearsNic_98681
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Post Date: 08/04/12 11:29
I also don't put much stock on preseason.  But I do like to check out new players I haven't seen before.  Like Doug Martin who I have been reading good things about.  Even being preseason it is nice to see how they run, cut, hit the hole, etc.  Just keep it in perspective since don't know how much playing time they will get or perform against the full force of a starting Def. 

Peyton I think will do alright.  I mean 75% Peyton is better than so many QB's in the league.  My worry would be durability.  Can they protect him and can he take the hits when they don't?  I don't see myself taking him as my starting QB (1QB league), but I would pick him up for upside.
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 Brez_40074
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Post Date: 08/04/12 22:53
OK, up until about 2yrs ago I didn't put much stock in preseason, and if you are looking at the usual suspects don't even bother! One or two series and they are out of the game. But if you are looking for that special player, the one you know they're not going to be able to keep out of the game, then I say yes the preseason in relavent! 2yrs ago I watched someone named Arian Foster run all over Dallas in a preseason game after Ben Tate went down. Drafted him #2, had everyone in the draft wondering who he was. LMAO all the way to the bank that year! Last year based on the preseason while everyone was grabbing Ingram and Thomas, I picked up Sproles. Then got someone named Antonio Brown based on his preseason performance. Again LMAO to the Bank! So I for one will be watching the preseason!
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Post Date: 08/08/12 22:21
I like your sleeper list and agree that Redman is quickly shedding his sleeper status. Martin is gaining a lot of press too, but I don't think anyone has any clue where to draft him yet. Pre-season may change that for some.



I learned the hard way many times that adjusting my rankings based on pre-season performance has screwed me every time. If it's helpful to anyone to do it, then great, I'm glad it works for you, but it's not for me. I now make it a point to have my rankings completed BEFORE pre-season even starts. I'll of course make small adjustmnts before the draft, in terms of changes in starting QB battles or injuries or other situations (AP and Mendenhall's progress or players' court-dates, jail time, suspensions etc), but no one is "pre-seasoning" their way up or down 10 or 20 draft spots on my lists.



For example, I don't care if Martin breaks every NFL record in pre-season, I'm not taking him before guys like Colston, Harvin, A. Hernandez (10-team PPR league, 5 pick). In my situation that makes him at best a 5th rd pick to me. And that's where he's staying.



I may however pick up on potential late-draft (not 4th or 5th rd) sleeper talent by watching pre-season. It's always helpful for that.



Other than that, let's start the season already. I'm rabid.
 Fumanaz_109000
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Post Date: 08/15/12 10:33
Dan, I would like to see how you would rate these players now. As of today or within the week. Redman looks like an injruy happened on the groin, which is real bad for RB. Martin appears to be a great sleeper. Ridley - well, is that really a good pick in later rounds? Mostly yes for PPR scoring or am I wrong?
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 Lucas _6601
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Post Date: 08/16/12 19:52
Glen nailed it. I too take good pride in watching the preason. Guys like San Fran's RB Hunter are the peeps I look for. When all said and done its a crap shoot until about week four when all the dust starts to settle and pecking order is clearly In place.





Great thread guys.
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