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Topic: Sproles and Bush, trust the numbers?
Yodize_174714
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Post Date: 08/24/12 09:07
Hello,

First year using this software and based on my league settings (1qb, 2rb, 3 wr, 1 te, 1k, 1 def, 1 flex rb/te/wr and a .5 ppr) I'm seeing Reggie Bush and Sproles in the top ten RBs? I became a member for an edge but these guys arent going until late 4th to 6th in most drafts. This sound right? I realize even with this software, you'll have to make calls on players ranked closely but this is quite a gap.
Thomas _5045
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Post Date: 08/24/12 12:54
Sproles and Bush are two very good RB's in ppr (even 1/2 ppr). If Sproles catches 80 asses, that's 40 points. even if another guy gets 24 catches, that's only 12 extra, so Sproles gains 28 points on him. That's usualy the equal of close to 5 TD's. Bush may not catch that many but with a rookie QB and no WR's worth squat, Bush should catch 60+ this season.



Use the tiering method Russ describes in the ebook. It will show you what other RB's are expected to score about the same amount of points as these two and if you like someone else in that tier group more than either of these guys, take them instead.
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Fumanaz_109000
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Post Date: 08/24/12 13:15
Well stated, nothing to add!
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Football Freak
 Throwball Heroes_118522
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Post Date: 08/24/12 13:26
Sproles catching 80 asses? Wow. That is a lot of asses! j/k

Eh...even in PPR I might find it difficult to put them in the top 10. Sproles would be closer than Bush in my opinion, but I would have a hard time sitting comfortable with either of these 2 RBs as my #1. Last year Sproles doubled up Bush on receptions, but Reggie outperformed him on the ground.



As Thomas said, use the tiering method and see what other options you have when your draft pick comes up.
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michel_93788
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Post Date: 08/24/12 15:42
I have noticed the last couple years that Bush has been rated higher by FFS than I am comfortable with it. That goes for this year, too. He's one I decided to move down a few tiers. Also, he has missed 21 out of 96 career games-- for a playing rate of only 78% (something that in my opinion gets horribly overlooked). Could he perform at his predicted levels for a full season? Sure, but I don't feel comfy selecting him where FFS and a lot of other sites suggest (and I'm in a PPR league).
Ram Mas_5910
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Post Date: 08/25/12 09:59
I have both Sproles and Bush in my dynasty league. With 1 pt/catch they were the 5th and 9th most valuable RB's, respectively. This year I've used a consensus of four websites that allow me to see their projections based on my scoring system. Here they are for the two players on each website:



FFS: Sproles 6, Bush 8

#2: Sproles 14, Bush 13 (I need to recheck that scoring)

#3: Sproles 6, Bush 27 (yeah right)

#4: Sproles 7, Bush 8.

Concensus: Sprols 6, Bush 10.



Now excuse me while I go check the data on these two sites.....
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Bleeding Blue and Gold Since 1975
Ram Mas_5910
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Post Date: 08/25/12 10:07
Ah I see, the guy gave him a low score because he plans on him getting injured. This fool writes:



It's time to sell high on Reggie Bush. The former No. 2 overall pick has had major problems staying healthy throughout his career, but was able to do just that in his first year with the Dolphins last season, in which he rushed for a personal-best 1,086 rushing yards to go along with 296 receiving yards. It's highly unlikely that Bush will be able to stay on the field, so he'll probably be overdrafted.

Projected 2012 Fantasy Stats: 750 rushing yards. 40 catches. 280 receiving yards. 5 total TDs.
Projected 2012 Fantasy Points: 133
Projected 2012 PPR Fantasy Points: 173
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