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Topic: Harbaugh Was Correct....
Cody_100138
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Post Date: 09/22/13 13:56
James, you mean like when he scored four total touchdowns (2 in final three min) to beat Brees in the 2011 playoffs?
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Cody_100138
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Post Date: 09/22/13 16:47
I concede, Kaepernick really proved your point today. He was beast mode.
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Cody_100138
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Post Date: 09/22/13 16:55
"IMO Harbaugh knew Smith isn't a game changing QB and Harbaugh had higher goals than just nice regular season winning percentages."



This is an interesting statement. I could argue that your portrayal of Smith isn't necessarily correct, but lets go with that assumption. Sometimes a non 'game changer' isn't such a bad thing when you have a strong d and decent run game. Kaepernick can definitely be electric but he can change the game both good and bad. The last two games he has 6 turnovers and no TDs..that's changing the game alright.
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James_119913
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Post Date: 09/22/13 21:10
LOL....I'm sure if you took a poll of all (32) GM's in the league "Who do you want to start your franchise with Alex Smith or Kap" the results would be (31-1) with only the Chiefs picking him.



Harbaugh knew what he was doing. He wanted to have a special team and not just one that was solid during the regular season. Also if you took a poll of the players (i.e. Veron Davis, Crabtree, etc) I assure you they to would say Kap.
Ryan_86404
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Post Date: 09/22/13 21:37
Just out of curiosity, why do so many 9er fans continue to grind this ax with Alex Smith? It is almost like a battered lover syndrome and borders on an awkward obsession. There was was a migration of them to a chiefs message board after the trade as well.

I'm a long suffering chiefs fan and do not put Alex Smith in the "elite QB" category, far from it. He is not my choice of QB to win the game when down four with 2 minutes left in the game. He has been as good as I could have asked for so far this year. If the D keeps playing a high level they will be just fine. If the chiefs have to rely of Alex to win games, it could be trouble.

That said, what has Kaepernick done this year? He shredded the abysmal packers defense and looked terrible against a very good Seahawks defense as well as a terrible colts defense.
James_119913
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Post Date: 09/22/13 22:11
Considering Harbaugh track record of sucess in college and quick success in the NFL I'll take his decision as to what was in the best interest of the 49ers long term. As we know there sadly aren't (32) quality QB's in the NFL so Smith is above average in terms of the (32) out there.



I just don't feel he raises the level of play of those around him to extraordinary levels and watching his dink and dunk passing like he's affraid to consistenly go for it and takes the easy way out with the check down passes is somewhat amazing considering how long he has been in the league.



Just my opinion.....
Cody_100138
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Post Date: 09/23/13 09:46
James, I think you(like many others) fell in love with the big plays last year and they blinded you from the fact that his success just isn't sustainable in that manner. You just can't rely so heavily on athleticism and big plays alone. Lets have a little fun with numbers between Smith and Kaepernick and a few benchmark QBs.



Last year Smith started 9 game going 6-2 while Kaepernick was 5-2 ... they both played a large part of the tie in StL so I threw it out. First lets look at passes thrown 10 or few yards in the air since it seems a large part of your problem with Smith is his game manager 'dink and dunk' style. Smith threw 74% of his 217 attempts 10 yards or less while of Kaep's 216 attempts only 62% where in that rank. Pretty big difference, but when we look at some of the games top passers Smith doesn't look as extremely conservative as he does in a direct comparison:
P. Manning: 66%
Brees: 68%
Rodgers: 69%
Brady: 70%
Manning was the only one of the 4 that fell closer to Kaepernick than to Smith in percentage of short passes. Also, Smith completed 76% of those short passes to just 69% for Kaepernick. Those short plays are the types that keep drives from stalling and the chains moving. It is an important part of the game that Kaepernick currently lacks...as he did in college.



Now looking at where Kaepernick excelled as a passer..and coming back to why I said it was not sustainable; lets look at passes from 21-30 yards. Kaep threw 9% of his passes in this range for a staggering 79% completion rate. Here's our other QBs breakdown for percentage of passes thrown in that range:
Smith: 4% for 63% completion
Brees: 5% for 45% completion
Brady: 7% for 34% completion
Rodgers: 7% for 40% completion
Manning: 8% for 44% completion
Kaepernick: 9% for 79% completion
Does something stand out here? Kaepernic threw the highest percentage of passes in the 21-30yd range and demolished everyone in completion percentage. This is basically like a baseball player hitting for a .600 average...you might see it for a few outstanding stretches, but you are will not see it sustain over a season/career.



Just how good was Kaep in this range? 24% of his yards came in that 21-30yd range(and 4 of his 10 TDs). Compared to the games best:
Brees: 10% 5 of 43 TDs
Brady: 10% 5 of 34 TDs
Rodgers: 10% 8 of 39 TDs
Manning: 12% 6 of 37 TDs



It is simply not possible for CK to keep up anywhere near that pace in the long passes and we are starting to see that this year. With the big play taken away, he's unable to convert the types of (boring) plays Smith thrives on. I don't think anyone is saying that Smith is an elite QB, but most of us are able to see that CK has a lot to prove still. Will he ultimately be better than Smith? Maybe, maybe not...he better start working on the fundementals and stop posing for magazine covers though ;)
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James_119913
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Post Date: 09/23/13 12:26
Cole please never again put Smith among a list of QB'S named Manning, Brees, Rodgers, and Brady



Great analysis on your part and a lot of work put into it.



I just feel that Manning, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady use the check down as a last result unless of course the other team is blitzing like crazy and then you make them pay with the screen pass. I just feel that Smith turns to the check down way to much as opposed to going through his progressions.



I think you kind of prove my point with a 74% pass of less than (10) yards or basically 3 out of 4 passes being (10) yards of less.



Perhaps I'm just angry over the Thursday Night game where Bowe got (1) catch for (4) yards. Perhaps Bowe will complain on how he's being used and the next game he'll have a Antonio Brown like performance. Oh yes I did bench Antonio Brown this week but it appears that won't come back to bite me.
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